Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN
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868 FXUS63 KMPX 241214 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 714 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers & thunderstorms expected this morning. A Marginal Risk of severe weather (mainly damaging wind and hail) across western Wisconsin this afternoon. - Cooler Memorial Day weekend with periodic chances for rain, mainly on Sunday.&& .DISCUSSION... Issued at 328 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024 Now through this evening...IR satellite imagery this morning showing a broad area of cold cloud tops extending from SW Minnesota to northern Kansas. Beneath the cloud cover, radar reflectivity showing an MCS that is producing quite the pre-dawn stir in Nebraska and Iowa. Meanwhile at the Minnesota/Iowa border, a discrete warm front is providing some buoyancy to where convection has developed. These storms will gradually make there way north/northeast and eventually become less organized as they decouple away from the better forcing environment over Iowa. Prior to sunrise, the threat of severe weather remains low however near-term RAP Soundings showing elevated instability of ~1500 J/kg along with weak low-level shear of 30kts. Therefore a few cells across southern MN may become strong and briefly produce sub-severe hail and gusty winds. Rainfall is expected to have a few hours of pause late this morning before redevelopment occurs mainly along and east of the I-35 corridor this afternoon. Another round of severe storms is possible for this region but the ongoing convection early this morning will have influence on the environment later this afternoon as noted in the latest SPC Convective Outlook. Highest confidence for the strongest convection will be tied to our Wisconsin counties with the primary hazards being mainly wind and hail, however a weak tornado cannot be ruled out given shear profiles. Rainfall amounts remaining on track with previous thinking ranging from 0.25" to 0.50" across central MN and southern MN to western WI seeing 0.50 to an 1.00" Temperatures today will near be near the 70 deg mark. Winds will also be increased given the passage of this cold front. Western MN could see 30-35mph wind gusts before decreasing this evening. Memorial Day weekend...For the eager beavers ready to kick off their memorial day holiday plans, overall the forecast looks fairly decent and slightly cooler. A series of shortwaves associated with an upper- level troughing pattern out to our west will eject several shortwaves towards the central CONUS. Saturday will be quiet except for increasing cloudiness in the afternoon with temps in the low 70s. Sunday looks like "worst" day of the weekend as likely PoPs have been introduced with the latest NBM guidance, especially across southern Minnesota and western Wisconsin. Sunday temps will range in the mid 60s to low 70s. Memorial Day Monday features partly cloudy skies with a chance of showers/storms and highs in the upper 60s. According to the MN State Climatology office, this temperature forecast falls in slightly cooler than what we typically see for this holiday weekend. As there have been some hot Memorial Days in the past. Looking into the latter half of next week, temperatures will remain in the 70s with periodic rain chances but also potential to dry out for a few days and slightly warmer than average temperatures as we head into June. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 646 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024 TSRA shield continues to make steady progress northward, eventually reaching all TAF sites shortly after initialization. Main degradation is to visibility, with brief drops into IFR range, while ceilings will only drop into the MVFR range. Precipitation may be heavy at times and contain bouts of TS at the terminals. This swath of rain will shift north of the TAF sites by late this morning, with at least a moderate potential of additional development this afternoon. Any redevelopment is not expected to have the coverage as the current swath, but CB/TS is still a viable possibility. Clearing conditions are expected this evening through overnight tonight as the low pressure system responsible for this rain moves off to the northeast. Breezy winds are expected throughout, with sustained speeds around 15kts and gusts around 25kts, while directions veer from SE to SW to SW over the next 24 hours. KMSP...TSRA to continue through around 15z, with potential for additional TSRA this afternoon. Overall confidence in TS drops off from about 17z onwards, so will need to see how radar trends evolve. Winds will run generally SE through this morning, then winds will gradually veer to SE and W, including a brief period with winds at 220 direction with speeds around 15G25kts. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SAT...VFR. Wind SW 10 kts. SUN...VFR. Chance -SHRA/MVFR. Wind E to NE 10 kts. MON...VFR. Chance -SHRA/MVFR. Wind NW 10-15 kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Dunleavy AVIATION...JPC