Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN
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568 FXUS63 KMPX 291056 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 556 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Sunny today with light wind and highs near 70. - Increasing confidence in widespread rain late Thursday into Friday as a line of showers with a few thunderstorms moves from west to east. The risk for severe weather is low. - Small hit or miss rain chances continue over the weekend. - More widespread showers and storms should arrive late Sunday into Monday next week. A few storms could be strong if things come together just right. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 319 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024 TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...Early morning satellite imagery with surface obs and RAP analysis showed clear skies across the region with light winds and cool temperatures. Areas of fog develop in the river valley along the MN/WI border, and also with some of the lower-lying marshy areas. This patchy fog will quickly burn off once the sun comes up, and expect a very gorgeous day with sunny skies, light winds becoming southeast, and afternoon highs near 70. On Thursday an upper level wave will move across the High Plains, and warm air advection will develop out ahead of it. Isentropic ascent will lead to clouds, showers, and thunderstorms across the Dakotas, which will meander eastward late Thursday into Friday. HiRes models are starting to capture this event. Chances for could begin as early as Thursday morning across western MN, but there is increasing agreement that a nearly solid line of showers and thunderstorms will develop by Thursday evening. This line will slowly move eastward, and weaken some, but should remain in tact as it moves into western Wisconsin. For that reason, we anticipate that rain chances will increase, and most if not all locations will end up getting wet with this system. Instability is once again the limiting factor with this system, so the threat for severe weather is low. SPC has a general thunder outlooked across the region, so lightning is the main concern. SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...As mentioned in the previous discussion, scattered showers and thunderstorms remain possible over the weekend. It does not appear to be a washout, but if your planning any outdoor activities you may need to dodge a couple period of rain. On Sunday warm air advection ahead of a fairly flat shortwave trough will lead to another chance for more widespread showers and thunderstorms. This system is still several days away, but there should be a more favorable thermodynamic set up in place to support deeper convection as highs reach the low 80s. That means there is a chance for strong thunderstorms and/or possibly heavy rain. At this point, its merely worth noting. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 554 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024 Aviation...No significant updates since the previous aviation discussion. If you are in need of more flight hours, today could be a good day to get some in the logbook. VFR categories prevailing this period, with light and variable winds becoming predominately ESE later this morning. Some few to sct cu will develop this afternoon but should not impact any flight categories today. Next TAF period will likely begin to introduce degraded conditions as our next system approaches from the west on Thursday. KMSP...No additional concerns. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ THU...VFR, chc MVFR/-SHRA late. Winds S 10-15G25kts. FRI...VFR/MVFR, chc IFR/-TSRA early. Winds S 10kts. SAT...VFR/MVFR, chc -TSRA. Winds SW 10kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JRB AVIATION...Dunleavy