479
FXUS63 KMPX 270206
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
906 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and a few thunderstorms are still expected tomorrow
  with a few stronger storms possible across far southern
  Minnesota.

- Things will remain fairly quiet with seasonable temperatures
  with the next chance for widespread rain arriving late in the
  week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 854 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024

Given trends with the HRRR and RAP, have increased PoPs quite a
bit for tonight through Memorial Day for MN in particular.
Scattered showers across the Dakotas will continue east through
the night, reaching the Twin Cities mid-late morning where they
should start to fizzle out. In the afternoon, 500-1000 j/kg of
mlCAPE will be enough to support scattered convection, again
with the greatest coverage over MN. A strong wind gust or two
could be possible, but severe risk looks better down in Iowa,
where the h7 and h5 wind speed maximums will be.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 226 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024

Today`s rain has largely failed to materialized across the MPX CWA,
with only a couple hundredths of rain recorded through early this
afternoon, mainly over far eastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin.
A surface low centered over extreme northeast Iowa and its
associated cloud shield have led to a decent temperature spread with
upper 50s and low 60s under the cloud cover to low to mid 70s in
western Minnesota. Looking at satellite, a boundary is evident across
west central Minnesota up through the Arrowhead. A couple of
isolated showers may develop along this boundary through late this
afternoon, but the remaining rain chances area wide through this
evening are low. However, PoPs will ramp back up overnight with an
approaching shortwave through the day tomorrow. Some embedded
thunderstorms are possible during the late morning and afternoon
with the highest chance across southern Minnesota. Severe chances
are slim, but a few damaging wind gusts are possible with any
stronger storms. QPF totals will range from around a quarter to a
half inch through Monday evening.

Heading into Tuesday, a second shortwave will once again bring
shower chances to eastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin. Rainfall
amounts with this round will be very light before we dry out for mid
week. Temperatures will be on the cooler side Tuesday (low to mid
60s) and gradually warm into the mid to upper 70s for the remainder
of the period as a ridge builds in. The next chance for rain will
arrive Thursday afternoon with continued low PoPs into at least the
first half of the weekend. Minnesota and Wisconsin will end up on
the western periphery of the ridge Thursday through Saturday with
embedded shortwaves responsible for these continued chances.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 550 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024

Any lingering clouds and rain are beginning to clear out this
evening across central Minnesota and western Wisconsin. All
sites should stay in VFR throughout the period, until our next
wave of rain approaches from the west overnight. Most of the
rain will fall as scattered light showers, with isolated
thunderstorms possible (30-50%) during the afternoon. Areas
further south, including KRWF and KMKT, look to have the best
environment for thunderstorm development. The biggest impact
from these storms will be strong gusts of wind and brief
visibility reductions. Any lingering showers will start to
weaken and clear out heading into the evening. Winds will be out
of the NE tonight, before shifting more N/NW by tomorrow
morning.

KMSP...Introduced the PROB30 for TSRA given the potential
(roughly 20-40%) for storm development during the afternoon.
Otherwise expect off and on light rain showers throughout much
of the day.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. Wind NW 10-15 kts.
WED...VFR. Wind variable 5 kts.
THU...VFR. Wind SE 10-15 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MPG
DISCUSSION...Dye
AVIATION...BED