Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
126 FXUS63 KMPX 261808 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 108 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - The active pattern continues for Memorial Day weekend, especially this afternoon when widespread rain is likely across southeast MN and western WI. - Quieter weather is expected by mid-week with comfortable temps. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1037 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024 The combination of dry air and a slight southward shift in the low track has resulted in less widespread rainfall than expected. Based on radar trends and observations, reduced PoPs through the rest of today across southern Minnesota and western Wisconsin. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 226 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024 A stationary front remains draped across north central MN early this morning which is defined well via current NT Microphysics imagery. Much of the southern half of MN and nearly all of Wisconsin are beneath upper-level cloud cover which has allowed for some insolation to our surface temperatures to remain in the mid to upper 50s. Farther north where it is cloud free, temps have dipped into the mid 40s and even few upper 30s. As for rainfall, only a few sites across central MN are currently reporting light to moderate rain rates. Drier air over much of southern MN is likely limiting the amount of rainfall coverage across much of the state. Mostly cloudy skies will be slow to improve beginning across western MN early this afternoon and then reaching near the St. Croix River Valley this evening. An upper-level trough located over the Northern Plains with an embedded shortwave in the mid-levels will make its way NE. Associated with this trough is a potent low-pressure system which produced significant severe weather across the central plains makes its way NE. Rain and thunder are in the forecast today as previously advertised however the track of this system favors more of an east-northeasterly track. Thus forcing for the best QPF scenarios have shifted into Wisconsin. For those living east of a line from Watonwan County, MN to Rusk County, WI will have a chance at seeing showers and some thunderstorms today. Storm total QPF associated with this system has reduced to a couple tenths of an inch. High temperatures will warm into the low to mid 70s, whereas east of I-35 will reach the low to mid 60s due to higher amounts of cloud cover. Monday and Tuesday feature two shortwaves that eject from the same trough over the northern plains during the course of Sunday. The first wave reaches MN around sunrise tomorrow morning. Forcing for showers and thunderstorms will reach its best potential mainly for areas west of the I-35 corridor, and have maintained likely PoPs to reflect as such. Storm total accumulation for this rain will range from a tenth to around a half-inch for localized areas with heavy downpours. For Tuesday not showing much to go with for this system in terms of forcing thus anticipating not accumulate to much. Highs in the mid to upper 60s. Wednesday through the rest of the period starts out with an upper- level ridging pattern and provides returns of a short string of nicer days featuring a mix of clouds and sun. Temps are forecasted to range in the 70s. Next weekend continues to look Active weather pattern heading into next weekend. Will need to wait a few more days before discussing impacts and amounts with this system. && && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1240 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 While KMSP and KRNH may see some lingering sprinkles through the afternoon, much of the rain will stay east, with only KEAU to worry about periods of lighter rain through the early evening. A broad area of cu has developed around 2000-3000 feet across central Minnesota, otherwise most sites will stick with VFR cigs throughout the period. A period of mostly clear skies is likely overnight as our current system passes east, making way for the another potential rain-maker tomorrow morning. An extended period of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms looks likely from tomorrow morning through the evening, starting in the west and extending eastward throughout the late morning. Confidence is low on the exact timing and intensity of isolated TS, so have kept mention out for now. Winds will stay out of the NE, with some spots gusting into the teens, through this evening. Calm winds are expected overnight, as they shift more N/NW into the morning. KMSP...A thin line of weak radar reflectivity returns is currently passing over the Twin Cities metro, which will likely provide the last sign of precip for the day at KMSP. Mostly clear skies overnight will give way to another round of showers tomorrow morning, with the potential for some isolated storms in the afternoon. The best environment for storm development looks to be centered over SW Minnesota, but if any were to extend as far east as the metro the main concern would be brief periods of stronger downdrafts. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ TUE...VFR. Wind NW 10-15 kts. WED...VFR. Wind variable 5 kts. THU...VFR. Wind SE 10-15 kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. && $$ UPDATE...Dye DISCUSSION...Dunleavy AVIATION...BED