061
FXUS63 KMPX 261927
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
227 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and a few thunderstorms are still expected tomorrow
  with a few stronger storms possible across far southern
  Minnesota.

- Things will remain fairly quiet with seasonable temperatures
  with the next chance for widespread rain arriving late in the
  week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 226 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024

Today`s rain has largely failed to materialized across the MPX CWA,
with only a couple hundredths of rain recorded through early this
afternoon, mainly over far eastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin.
A surface low centered over extreme northeast Iowa and its
associated cloud shield have led to a decent temperature spread with
upper 50s and low 60s under the cloud cover to low to mid 70s in
western Minnesota. Looking at satellite, a boundary is evident across
west central Minnesota up through the Arrowhead. A couple of
isolated showers may develop along this boundary through late this
afternoon, but the remaining rain chances area wide through this
evening are low. However, PoPs will ramp back up overnight with an
approaching shortwave through the day tomorrow. Some embedded
thunderstorms are possible during the late morning and afternoon
with the highest chance across southern Minnesota. Severe chances
are slim, but a few damaging wind gusts are possible with any
stronger storms. QPF totals will range from around a quarter to a
half inch through Monday evening.

Heading into Tuesday, a second shortwave will once again bring
shower chances to eastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin. Rainfall
amounts with this round will be very light before we dry out for mid
week. Temperatures will be on the cooler side Tuesday (low to mid
60s) and gradually warm into the mid to upper 70s for the remainder
of the period as a ridge builds in. The next chance for rain will
arrive Thursday afternoon with continued low PoPs into at least the
first half of the weekend. Minnesota and Wisconsin will end up on
the western periphery of the ridge Thursday through Saturday with
embedded shortwaves responsible for these continued chances.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024

While KMSP and KRNH may see some lingering sprinkles through
the afternoon, much of the rain will stay east, with only KEAU
to worry about periods of lighter rain through the early
evening. A broad area of cu has developed around 2000-3000 feet
across central Minnesota, otherwise most sites will stick with
VFR cigs throughout the period. A period of mostly clear skies
is likely overnight as our current system passes east, making
way for the another potential rain-maker tomorrow morning. An
extended period of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
looks likely from tomorrow morning through the evening, starting
in the west and extending eastward throughout the late morning.
Confidence is low on the exact timing and intensity of isolated
TS, so have kept mention out for now.

Winds will stay out of the NE, with some spots gusting into the
teens, through this evening. Calm winds are expected overnight,
as they shift more N/NW into the morning.

KMSP...A thin line of weak radar reflectivity returns is
currently passing over the Twin Cities metro, which will likely
provide the last sign of precip for the day at KMSP. Mostly
clear skies overnight will give way to another round of showers
tomorrow morning, with the potential for some isolated storms in
the afternoon. The best environment for storm development looks
to be centered over SW Minnesota, but if any were to extend as
far east as the metro the main concern would be brief periods of
stronger downdrafts.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. Wind NW 10-15 kts.
WED...VFR. Wind variable 5 kts.
THU...VFR. Wind SE 10-15 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Dye
AVIATION...BED