427
FXUS63 KMPX 252054
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
354 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- September of 2024 will likely go down as the warmest and driest
  on record in the Twin Cities.

- High in the 80s likely through the weekend.

- A dry cold front will pass on Monday, briefly dropping temperatures
  down Tuesday and Wednesday next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 353 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024

Satellite imagery shows an amplified pattern across the CONUS this
afternoon, with a ridge axis extending from northern Mexico into the
Canadian Prairies. Near the confluence of the Ohio and Mississippi
Rivers there is an h5 low in the process of becoming cut-off from
the main flow, with Hurricane Helene making an entrance into the
Gulf of Mexico. Helene will get absorbed into the cut-off low as the
ridge crests over the top of this combined feature. This will setup
an omega block that will see us stuck in the mild and dry portion of
the block to the northwest of the cut-off low through the weekend.
The net result is we`ll see sunny skies and highs in the 80s every
day through Sunday and possibly into Monday depending on the timing
of our next front. As of the 24th, MSP is 0.18" below the current
driest September on record (2022) and 1.2 degrees warmer than the
current warmest September on record (2023) and this forecast of zero
rain and temperatures 10 to 15 degrees above normal the rest of the
month means that September of 2024 should have no problem going down
as both the driest and warmest on record in the Twin Cities.

Early next week, the omega block finally breaks down and we`ll see a
strong short wave track across southern Canada. This will finally
drive a front across the upper MS Valley early next week. How
quickly that front moves through on Monday will determine whether or
not we get one more day with highs in the 80s before said front
knocks highs back into the mid 60s to lower 70s Tuesday and
Wednesday next week. However, those two days look to be it for the
cool down, with above normal temperatures quickly returning by the
end of next week. Unfortunately, the combination of the forcing
remaining well north of us and tropical moisture getting locked up
with the remnants of Helene and the cut-off low to our southeast,
means no rain is expected with this front. In fact, looking at the
EPS, GEPS, and GEFS, it`s not out of the realm of possibility for us
to remain dry not just for the next 7 day, but the next 14.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1208 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024

Solid VFR conditions expected at all TAF sites throughout this
duration. Potentially some patchy fog near the WI TAF sites but
confidence too low to include in TAFs at this point. W to NW
winds around 5 kts into early this evening go close to calm
overnight then pick up in the 5-10kt range from the south late
Thursday morning through Thursday afternoon.

KMSP...No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. Wind S 5 kts becoming E.
SAT...VFR. Wind N 5-10 kts.
SUN...VFR. Wind E 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MPG
AVIATION...JPC