927
FXUS63 KMPX 300332
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1032 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cool and dry weather continues through tomorrow before rain chances
  return through at least the middle of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 122 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

Cloud cover has filled in from the northwest behind a cold front
early this afternoon. A few scattered sprinkles have managed to
find their way down to the surface across eastern Minnesota
and western Wisconsin, but overall we will remain dry through
the weekend. Strong CAA has kept temperatures in the mid 60s to
low 70s, which is some 10-15 degrees below normal. Gusty
northwest winds are expected through early this evening before
dying down as a high approaches from the west. This will also
work to clear out our cloud cover overnight, leading to an even
cooler late June night. Lows in the mid 40s to low 50s are
expected by Sunday morning with another cool and dry day on tap
to end what has otherwise been a very active month for rainfall
and river flooding. A preliminary look back at June`s precip
shows all three of our climate sites (MSP/STC/EAU) will end well
above normal by some 2.7" to nearly 3". Despite this, none of
our sites came close to cracking a top 10 wettest June.
Additionally, these sites still have yet to see 90 degrees this
year, which on average occurs during the first two weeks of this
month.

As we start July, our brief break in the precip looks to come
to an end as we once again find ourselves caught in a parade of
shortwaves moving across the Upper Midwest. Southerly flow ramps
up through the day Monday, with moisture really increasing by
Monday night. A strong LLJ kicks in Monday evening, helping to
reinforce the heavy rainfall threat overnight into Tuesday.
Monday afternoon may bring some strong to severe storms to far
western Minnesota, but there are uncertainties with how much
instability will be available. There will be no shortage of
shear, especially once that 850mb gets going. In any case, this
will likely end up being more of a rain threat for our area than
a severe threat. Rain will continue into Tuesday with a wide
swath of 1-1.5"+ of QPF across central and southern Minnesota
and western Wisconsin by Tuesday evening.

Wednesday will be quiet before our next system arrives in time
for the Independence Day holiday. A deep trough looks to swing
through the Dakotas with a surface low developing across the
central CONUS and lifting northward. Confidence has increased in
widespread rainfall during this timeframe, and PoPs/QPF reflect
this. As with any system at this time range, there are still
some uncertainties with exact timing and amounts, but it is
seeming more likely that Independence Day will be wet. Looking
ahead to the end of next week into the following weekend, there
is a decent amount of model spread in the evolution of the
Thursday trough, but it does appear that temperatures will
remain on the slightly cooler side of normal with continued low
chances for additional precip.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1028 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

VFR conditions expected throughout this duration with nearly no
clouds once they dissipate this evening. High pressure will
steadily slide across MN/WI through Sunday night. This will
maintain light wind speeds with varying direction and keep
skies mainly clear. The only wrinkle may be fog formation prior
to sunrise tomorrow morning at KEAU close to the river there.

KMSP...No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR. Chc MVFR/-SHRA day, MVFR/TSRA likely overnight. Wind
      SE 15G25 kts.
TUE...MVFR. Chance MVFR SHRA/TSRA. Wind SW 10-15 kts.
WED...VFR Wind WSW 15G25 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Dye
AVIATION...JPC