641
FXUS63 KMPX 151739
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1239 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures in the mid to upper 80s return today through
  early next week.

- Rain chances increase from Wednesday through next weekend as a
  more active pattern sets up.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 228 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

The stationary boundary which had helped produced rain showers
and drizzle yesterday morning has drifted off to the north and
east. Broad H300 ridging over the eastern half of the CONUS is
in place which will keep today rather quiet except for a stray
isolated shower. Southerly flow will allow for slightly breezy
conditions between 20-25 mph especially across western MN this
afternoon. Accompanying these winds will be warmer temperatures.
Forecasted highs will rebound into the low to mid 80s which is
at least 5 to 8 degrees warmer than yesterday`s highs as H850
thermal ridging infiltrates into the northern plains.

The forecast for the first half of the week features a rinse and
repeat type pattern containing above average highs in the mid
80s with dry conditions. In regards to "dry conditions", we only
have seen 0.03" of rainfall for the month thus far which brings
us to a monthly deficit just shy of -1.4 inches. Some good news
though is we do have increasing confidence for several chances
of rain to return by mid-week and persist into the weekend.
Although we are still too far out to share details on exact
rainfall impacts but latest ensemble guidance hints at QPF
totals up to 1.5" of rainfall though this weekend. Western MN
could potentially exceed two inches which agrees well with the
current slightly above average on the latest precipitation
outlook. Once these systems pass at the end of this week, cooler
temperatures return to the upper 60s to low 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

VFR conditions expected throughout this duration with a mix of
mid-level fair wx cumulus clouds and upper level cirrus clouds.
Diurnally-driven mid-level clouds will dissipate this evening
then are expected to return by Monday afternoon. Chances for
rain are 10 percent or less so have kept TAFs dry. Southerly
winds will run 10-15kts gusting 15-25kts through this
afternoon, diminishing to around 5 kts tonight, then picking up
once again after daybreak Monday.

KMSP...No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. Wind SE 10-15kts.
WED...VFR, chc MVFR/-TSRA late. Wind SE 10-15kts.
THU...VFR, chc MVFR/-SHRA. Wind SE 5-10kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Dunleavy
AVIATION...JPC