Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN
593 FNUS73 KMPX 231324 FWSMPX Spot Forecast for Gruven WMA...MN DNR National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 824 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024 Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 CDT on May 23. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. Please contact our office if you have questions or concerns with this forecast. .DISCUSSION... For the Gruven WMA fire, southerly winds at ignition between 5-10 mph will increase to 10-15 mph by late morning with gusts near 20 mph. RH values are in the upper 60s and low 70s this morning and will fall between 40-45 percent this afternoon. Precipitation chances are low today, but showers and thunderstorms will become likely overnight. .REST OF TODAY... Sky/weather.........Sunny (10-20 percent). Temperature.........63 at ignition...Max 78. RH..................72 percent at ignition...Min 40 percent. Wind (20 ft)........Winds south at 10 mph at ignition...otherwise South winds 10 to 17 mph. Smoke dispersal.....Fair /16500 knot-ft/ at ignition. Max...excellent /108100 knot-ft/ increasing to excellent (114400 knot-ft) late in the afternoon. Mixing height.......1100 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 5700 ft AGL. Transport winds.....South 17 to 25 mph. Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume dominated fire growth at ignition...max 5. TIME (CDT) 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM 7PM 8PM Sky cover.......MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR PC Weather cov..... Weather type.... Tstm cov........ Temp............63 68 71 73 75 76 77 77 77 76 75 72 RH..............72 63 55 49 46 43 42 42 42 42 45 49 20 FT wind dir..S S S S S S S S S S S SE 20 FT wind spd..10 10 13 14 14 15 16 17 17 17 16 14 20 FT wind gust.15 17 18 20 21 22 23 24 24 24 23 22 Mix hgt (kft)...1.1 1.9 3.7 4.5 5.1 5.4 5.7 5.7 5.3 5.2 2.5 0.7 Transp wind dir.S S S S S S S S S S S S Transp wind spd.17 18 20 20 23 23 24 23 25 28 25 21 Haines index....5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 .TONIGHT... Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (25-35 percent) then becoming mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the evening, then showers and chance of thunderstorms overnight. Temperature.........Min 59. RH..................Max 97 percent. Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 14 to 17 mph. Gusty and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms late in the evening. Gusty and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms overnight. Smoke dispersal.....Excellent (124100 knot-ft) early in the evening decreasing to good (55400 knot-ft) late in the night decreasing to fair (14700 knot-ft) early in the evening decreasing to poor (9400 knot-ft) late in the night early in the evening. Mixing height.......600 ft AGL. Transport winds.....South 20 to 28 mph decreasing to 18 to 23 mph after 3 am. Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large plume dominated fire growth. .FRIDAY... Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent) then becoming mostly sunny (30-40 percent). Showers likely and chance of thunderstorms in the morning, then slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Temperature.........Max 69. RH..................Min 56 percent. Wind (20 ft)........South winds 16 to 17 mph shifting to the west 22 to 23 mph late in the afternoon. Gusty and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms in the morning. Gusty and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms early in the afternoon. Smoke dispersal.....Fair (16200 knot-ft) early in the morning increasing to excellent (113600 knot-ft) in the afternoon increasing to excellent (114400 knot-ft) late in the afternoon. Mixing height.......5000 ft AGL. Transport winds.....Southwest 23 to 26 mph shifting to the west 25 to 28 mph in the late morning and afternoon. Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. $$ Forecaster...Strus Requested by...Chad August Type of request...PRESCRIBED .TAG 2414996.0/MPX .DELDT 05/23/24 .FormatterVersion 2.0.0 .EMAIL Chad.august@state.mn.us