248
FXUS63 KMQT 080525
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
125 AM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few stronger storms capable of small hail and gusty winds
  are possible Saturday afternoon, mainly east-central.
- Showery weather and much cooler through the weekend under the
  influence of low pressure, then warming and drying early next
  week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1101 PM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024

Forecast remains mostly on track this evening with breezy west winds
calming substantially over the past two hours as sunset approached
then passed. Temperatures are mainly in the low to mid-50s, but
there are a few spots already in the upper 40s and expect that to
become more widespread overnight.

Regional satellite/radar imagery show the next weather-maker over
ND/MN/WI this evening. Radar returns over WI appear to be mostly
virga as of 11 PM, but returns over MN/ND are reaching the ground as
light rain/drizzle. The latest model guidance brings this batch of
light rain into the far western area between 5-8 AM then across most
of the central UP throughout the morning. By the afternoon, a cold
front/lake breeze hybrid initiates showers and a few thunderstorms
with the highest chances near Lake MI. Model soundings indicate up
to 1000 J/kg of SBCAPE and bulk shear up to 40 knots suggests a few
strong storms capable of small hail and gusty winds are
possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 154 PM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024

This afternoon features a weak midlevel ridge building over the
Upper Great Lakes while a weakening trough continues to exit
eastward over eastern Ontario. Increasing subsidence is resulting in
a drier midlevel airmass overhead, with clearing skies across most
of the western half of the UP. That said, plenty of lower level
cloud cover lingers across the eastern UP so far, and sporadic weak
radar returns hint at a potential for a few sprinkles through the
afternoon hours. Otherwise, with a tighter pressure gradient still
present across the UP, wind gusts to around 20-30mph are still
common. Where skies have been able to clear out, temperatures are
climbing well into the 50s and lower 60s. In the eastern UP, where
skies remain cloudy, temperatures may only peak in the mid 50s.

Any lingering cloud cover in the eastern UP should clear out this
evening, but with another shortwave ejecting out of the Northern
Plains tonight, expect clouds to fill back in from west to east the
second half of the night. We may see some showers moving into the
western UP by sunrise. Winds turn light tonight while temperatures
fall back into the 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 323 PM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024

Upper air pattern consists of an elongated trough and several closed
lows along most of the Canadian/U.S. border into New England 12z
Sat. Upper level troughing slowly moves south through upper Great
Lakes Sat and Sat night. Upper high pressure ridging then moves into
the area on Mon. Next chance for rain moves into the area on Sat
into Sat evening and then another chance for pcpn Sun before it
dries out Sun night. Pcpn chances do not look that great and will be
mostly hit and miss.

In the extended, the GFS and ECMWF show a 500 mb ridge in the
western U.S. and across the upper Great Lakes with a trough in the
northern plains 12z Tue. This trough moves through the upper Great
Lakes 12z Wed with more upper level troughing near the area 12z Thu
through 12z Fri. Temperatures go from near normal on Tue to above
normal Wed through Fri.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 124 AM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024

Mostly clear skies have returned to UP terminals but the next
disturbance is approaching from the west. Cloud coverage increases
with overcast VFR cigs expected Saturday morning as the disturbance
ripples eastward across the area. Light rain chances accompany the
increased cloudiness Saturday morning, but cig/vsby restrictions are
not expected. Showers and thunderstorms may develop in the vicinity
of SAW Saturday afternoon and if storms occur then they may be
capable of brief gusty/erratic winds, small hail, and cig/vsby
restrictions. Decided on vicinity thunderstorms at this time given
low confidence in this outcome.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 323 PM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024

Winds stay below 20 knots through Sunday morning before increasing to
20 to 25 knots Sun afternoon. The wind then stays again below 20
knots Sunday night through the end of the forecast period as no
strong pressure systems are near the area.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...EK
SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...EK
MARINE...07