715
FXUS63 KMQT 270715
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
315 AM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

-Pattern remains active, especially from late week into early next
week, with yet more rounds of showers and storms

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 315 AM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024

Confluent flow ahead of broad mid-upper level ridging over the
Plains will lead to broad surface ridging and dry conditions
across the region which should persist through much of tonight.
WAA mid-high clouds will increase from the west tonight ahead of
the frontal system moving in from the Plains, but any
isolated/scattered showers should hold off except for maybe late
tonight into the far west.

Under sunny skies and developing lake breezes with 850 mb temps
rising to 8-10C in the afternoon, look for highs today mostly in the
lower 70s, except for maybe some mid to upper 60s readings along the
Lake Superior shoreline. Lows tonight will be mostly in the 50s
under increasing cloud cover and increased mixing late from a modest
increase in southerly winds. Some upper 40s readings will be
possible over the interior east half where there will be a more
evening clearing and lighter winds.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 339 PM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024

Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb trough on the west coast, a
ridge over the plains and a trough in the ern U.S. 12z Thu.
Troughing moves into the northern Rockies 00z Fri and upper ridging
into the upper Great Lakes 12z Fri. Troughing moves into the upper
Great Lakes 12z Sat. Dry weather will continue into Thu night before
pcpn overspreads the area on Fri into Fri night and lasts into Sat.

In the extended, the GFS and ECMWF show a 500 mb trough over the
lower Great Lakes region 12z Sun with a trough on the west coast and
a ridge over the Rockies. The west coast trough moves into the
Rockies 12z Mon with the ridge over the upper Great Lakes. This
trough quickly moves into the upper Great Lakes by 12z Tue which
then lingers into Wed. Temperatures will go from below normal on
Sunday to near normal by Wednesday. Pcpn comes back in for Mon
afternoon into Tue night.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 123 AM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024

VFR to continue through duration of this TAF period with Upper
Michigan under the influence of high pressure.  However, rain
chances and deteriorating conditions will likely be issued with next
TAF issuance as troughing overspreads the Great Lakes Region.
Meanwhile, no wind impacts expected at this time, either.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 339 PM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024

Winds stay below 20 knots into Fri morning and switch to the south
by then. A weakening low pressure tracking through the Upper Great
Lakes early this weekend will allow for s-se gusts 20-25 kt Friday
over mainly the east half ahead of the front and then nw gusts 20-25
kt behind the cold frontal passage on Saturday before building high
pressure returns Sunday and ushers in lighter winds into Monday.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Voss
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...TDUD
MARINE...07