495
FXUS63 KMQT 131955
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
355 PM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few showers and storms possible over the west this evening.

- Dry Friday and early Saturday before the return of showers and
thunderstorms later in the weekend.

- Warmer than normal temperatures frequent the forecast, with some
areas approaching 90 for highs by next week, especially Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 337 PM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024

With a line of showers and storms having exited our region this
afternoon, expect the rest of today to go fairly pleasantly, with
mostly sunny skies being seen across the western 2/3rds of the area
as seen on GOES-16 imagery. With the cold front moving in this
evening, we could see a few more showers and possibly some
thunderstorms develop over the western U.P. this evening. However,
with high pressure building in, expect the rainfall to be done by
midnight local time. With mostly clear skies expected tonight,
expect lows to plummet into the 40s in the interior areas. We may
see some upslope fog/low-level stratus over the Keweenaw late
tonight. However, the uncertainty in this occurring is fairly high,
as the outflow of a storm over northern Lake Superior is visibly
moving across the rest of the lake, possibly inducing mixing.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 354 PM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024

The active weather pattern across the CONUS continues through the
long-term forecast. The main features of note at 500mb are ridging
over the Plains and cutoff low troughs over the Pacific NW and the
Four Corners region. Despite high pressure to end the work week and
begin the weekend, the overall weather pattern through the long term
is wetter than normal and warmer than normal, with some of the
hottest temperatures of the year thus far forecast for the beginning
of next week.

Dry weather will be over the UP through at least Saturday morning as
ridging aloft builds in and supports a near-1020mb high pressure
over the Upper Great Lakes. Friday will be a slightly cooler day
with highs only in the 60s to low 70s, but highs recover to the mid
70s for Saturday. RHs look to fall into the 40s and 30s, but with
very light winds, weather should be benign to end the work week and
begin the weekend.

Meanwhile, the pair of cutoff low troughs will advance towards the
Upper Great Lakes. The GEFS shows two clusters of surface lows by
Saturday afternoon, one over Saskatchewan and one around the
ND/SD/WY/MT region. These lows become one north of Lake Winnipeg
at around 985mb by Sunday evening. With high pressure shifting
to the east from the Great Lakes to the New England Coast,
predominantly southerly low level flow will allow Gulf moisture
to surge north, as shown in the NAEFS vapor transport being at
the 90th to 97.5th percentile of climatology along with PWATs of
near 1.5 inches. Depending on the evolution and interaction of
the upper troughs and resultant surface features, multiple
lifting mechanisms for showers and thunderstorms will be present
by Saturday evening, with PoPs spreading west to east beginning
around 18Z Saturday. As the pattern is complex, details on the
strength and timing of storms is tough to narrow down, so look
for future forecast packages to gain clarity there, but with the
available moisture to work with, ensembles do show about a 10%
chance of daily precip totals to exceed an inch by Monday. This
continues a downward trend in the ensemble guidance, though
outdoor activities this weekend should still be generally aware
of the potential for rainfall.

The gradual warmup continues into next week, with high 80s for much
of next week, with widespread low to mid 90s in the 50th to 75th
percentile of the NBM, especially Tuesday. PoPs remain in the rest
of the long term forecast as ensembles show a continued chaotic
pattern through mid-June. The general pattern looks to support
ridging over the eastern CONUS with a persistent surface high off
the East Coast, which should help create southerly to southwesterly
flow to advect further Gulf moisture north. As a result, the CPC
outlooks the 8-14 day period as being more likely to be warmer than
normal and wetter than normal.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 129 PM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024

VFR conditions continue across KIWD and KSAW over the next 24 hours,
while KCMX eventually has the low-level stratus leave by the mid-
afternoon. We may see some upslope fog/low-level stratus return over
KCMX late tonight via fog from Lake Superior. Gusty winds are
expected across the TAF sites this afternoon ahead of an incoming
cold front.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 354 PM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024

Thunderstorms are ongoing at 4PM EDT between Isle Royale and the
Keweenaw Peninsula. These storms will continue to push ESE to SE
throughout the evening, occasionally bringing lightning, strong
winds, and hail. High pressure building over the Upper Great Lakes
into the weekend will keep wind gusts below 20 kt Friday through
Sunday morning, when a cold front will bring a return of
thunderstorm chances. Southerly winds will gust to 20-25 kt before
the cold front turns the winds westerly and wind gusts fall below 20
kt going into next week. Waves will largely be below 4 ft until
Sunday when waves along the US/Canada border on Lake Superior will
grow to 4-5 ft.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TAP
LONG TERM...GS
AVIATION...TAP
MARINE...GS