600
FXUS63 KMQT 150709
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
309 AM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A chance (15-50%) of showers and storms today into Monday over
mainly the west half. Otherwise, the prolonged dry stretch will
continue through this week.

- Extended stretch of well above normal temperatures continues
through the forecast period with highs mainly in the upper 70s and
80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 336 PM EDT Sat Sep 14 2024

Weak forcing ahead of a shortwave lifting nne through northern
WI has triggered some isolated showers over northern WI this
afternoon in an environment of 300-500 j/kg elevated CAPE.
These showers will move into the western U.P. through the
afternoon and evening hours with the northward movement of the
shortwave. Only a rumble or two thunder is possible with
convection given the skinny CAPE profile depicted on soundings.
Otherwise, late summer warmth has continued today but with with
more clouds temps have slipped back slightly from the last
couple of days with highs thus far ranging from the mid 70s to
lower 80s F, coolest near Lake MI and on the e side of the
Keweenaw due to se winds.

A secondary shortwave now over western MN as noted on water vapor
imagery will lift into northern Ontario tonight and will sustain
some scattered showers and possibly a few thunderstorms over mainly
the western half of the U.P. into Sunday morning. Modest increase in
WAA/isentropic ascent into the west half could provide a boost in
lift/mid-level moistening to sustain better coverage of showers in
the west overnight. Expect milder min temps tonight given the
increase in cloud cover with readings generally in the upper 50s to
lower 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 308 AM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024

BLUF: Mainly calm weather dominates the extended period, although
some light rain showers and some thunderstorms are possible over the
west tonight and Monday. Expect the late summer-like conditions to
continue through the week, although temperatures may slightly
decrease late this week as troughing approaches from the west by
next weekend. Therefore, if you can, enjoy those outdoor activities
while you still can!

Some isolated rain showers and a thunderstorm or two are possible
over the western U.P. late tonight through Monday as a shortwave
riding along the ridging over the Great Lakes moves overtop us.
While plenty of instability is available in the atmosphere by the
Monday afternoon hours, with the better forcing located to our west
and north, rain showers and storms will have a difficult time firing
up. Therefore, any convection that we do see late tonight through
Monday will more than likely be dependent on hard to pin down
mesoscale/local variables, such as storm dynamics and localized
topography. With the better PWATs further to our west and north too,
not much rainfall is expected to fall out of the showers and storms
we do see; expect no more than a quarter of an inch in the heaviest
rain spots, with many areas even over the west failing to receive
anything.

Expect the rest of this week to be dry as high pressure ridging
settles across the Upper Great Lakes while troughing digs into the
western U.S.. While the warmest day is expected on Monday with highs
possibly getting into the mid to upper 80s in the interior areas,
the rest of the work week is very likely (80+%) to see high
temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s, with mostly sunny skies
dominating overhead due to the ridging. Fire weather concerns should
be limited this week due to the light winds and more "moist" min
RHs. However, fuels may need to be monitored as the lack of rainfall
could further dry them out. By next weekend, model spread increases
amongst the differing suites. However, there is still a general
trend to push the timing of incoming rainfall back to the end or
past the end of the extended period. Therefore, I`m highly doubtful
(80+% chance) that we will see rainfall over our area until at least
early next week. However, we could see cloud cover increase from the
west as the troughing slowly tries to battle its way into our neck-
of-the-woods this next weekend; this increase in clouds would drop
our daytime high temperatures closer to normal.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 131 AM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024

VFR will prevail at IWD/CMX/SAW thru this fcst period. However,
a disturbance will continue its track into northern Ontario
early this morning, resulting in scattered rain showers over
western Upper MI. IWD/CMX may occasionally be affected,
especially CMX where a mention of MVFR vis in -shra/br was
included thru 10z. Thunderstorm threat is too low to include
mention. Winds will remain light and mainly southerly.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 308 AM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024

Light winds of 20 knots or less continue through this week as
ridging remains over the Upper Great Lakes. Nevertheless, we could
see a few showers and thunderstorms over Lake Superior today through
Monday as some shortwave action rides along the ridging overtop us.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Voss
LONG TERM...TAP
AVIATION...Rolfson/TDUD
MARINE...TAP