092
FXUS63 KMQT 251921
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
321 PM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

-Today will be a warm and windy day, with highs around 80 and
 wind gusts up to 30-40 mph in the west.

-Pattern remains active, especially from late week into early
 next week, with yet more rounds of showers and storms

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 500 AM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024

Thunderstorms are ongoing this morning throughout western and
central Upper Michigan. A few of these storms have been producing
hail, though the largest report thus far has been pea sized hail in
Ironwood. Perhaps more perplexing has been the wind gusts, with
storms on Isle Royale and the Keweenaw Peninsula gusting above 50
mph, though the wind threat has fallen significantly since the time
storms initially passed through that area. These showers and
thunderstorms are forecast to continue pushing east through the rest
of the morning, with 00Z HREF hourly PoPs falling below 30% UP-wide
by 14Z.

As winds veer westerly behind the front, soundings show a 30+ kt jet
at 850mb that can be mixed into, leading to a gusty day expected,
especially over the west and particularly the Keweenaw. By 21Z, the
HREF shows 70-100% chances of wind gusts over 30 mph over the west
half and along Lake Superior in the east, with the Keweenaw showing
40-90% probabilities of gusts over 40 mph. It will also be a warm
day, with MOS guidance showing wide swaths of the south-central UP
reaching into the mid 80s for highs today, with the NBM showing
about a 25% chance that the M-35 corridor from Escanaba to Menominee
could touch 90 today.

Overnight, clear skies will begin to cloud up some, though enough
radiational cooling should occur to allow low temperatures to fall
below 50 away from the Great Lakes. A very subtle 500mb shortwave
will be pushing southeast from northwest Ontario, reaching the
western UP by 12Z Wednesday. Just enough forcing and moisture will
be present for slight-chance (15-30%) PoPs over the west half,
though precipitation will be struggling against the near-1015
surface high pressure present at the time, so impacts of any showers
will be light, if any.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 320 PM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024

An inverted trough along a descending cold front from northern
Ontario moving through the U.P. Wednesday looks to bring some light
rainfall across mainly the Keweenaw during the morning hours before
degrading throughout the day and only bringing slight rain chances
to the east and south central later in the day. As high pressure
ridging builds in from our west throughout the day, expect the cloud
cover to dissolve away with time Wednesday. However, with fairly
cool temps aloft moving over us in association with the ridging
moving in and the cold air advection behind the front (4-6C), highs
Wednesday should be limited to the 60s inland and the mid 50s to
around 60 along the Lake Superior shoreline. With ridging continuing
to build into the Upper Great Lakes Wednesday night, expect clear
skies, allowing temperatures to plummet in the interior areas; some
spots could get into the mid to upper 30s or lower. That being said,
given the drier air moving in, no frost is expected to form over the
interior areas Wednesday night.

Calm weather continues Thursday as the high pressure ridging peaks
over us during the morning hours. More active weather looks to
return late Thursday night/Friday as a low lifts off of the Rockies
through the Canadian Prairies/Northern Plains into northern Ontario.
Along the cold front moving through Friday through Saturday expect
some showers and thunderstorms. In addition, a shortwave low
rotating around the low pressure system could bring additional light
rain shower activity (that`s possibly upslope enhanced) late
Saturday into possibly Sunday morning behind the cold front. With
MUCAPE between 500-1500 J/kg ahead and along the cold front and 0-6
km bulk shear around 40 to 50 kts, there is a non-zero chance that
we could see some severe weather as the cold front passes.

More quiet weather returns early next week as yet another high
pressure ridge moves overhead. Behind it, another low pressure
lifting through the Canadian Prairies looks to bring more rain
showers and thunderstorms to end the extended period. Overall,
expect temperatures around normal for the next several days, with
showers and thunderstorms coming and going every few days.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 140 PM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024

With drier air advecting into the area on gusty wnw winds this aftn,
VFR will prevail at IWD/CMX/SAW. These winds will gust to around
20kt at IWD, to around 30kt at CMX and to around 25kt at SAW. Winds
will diminish toward sunset and then veer n to ne. In the 09z-12z
timeframe, low clouds (MVFR cigs) will arrive at all terminals. A
few shra may also occur at CMX btwn 11-14z. The MVFR cigs will
scatter out to VFR at IWD by aftn and at CMX/SAW during the aftn.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 320 PM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024

The last of the patchy fog over the eastern lake ends late this
afternoon/early this evening as a cold front descends from northern
Ontario this evening into Wednesday. As this happens, the southwest
to west winds of 25 to 30 knots across the lake this afternoon die
down to 20 knots or less behind the cold front. The light winds look
to continue Wednesday to Friday morning as high pressure ridging
moves over the region. Once we get into Friday, thunderstorms look
possible over the lake again as a low pressure lifting from the
Rockies moves towards northern Ontario. Currently, thunderstorms
look possible Friday through Saturday; as of right now, there is a
non-zero chance of severe weather. In addition to the thunderstorms,
winds pick back up to around 20 knots from the southeast Friday as
the low`s center approaches. With the surface low looking to move
through Lake Superior Friday night/Saturday, we could see winds
shift suddenly and sharply near the center of the low. Behind the
low, expect winds from the north and northwest to pick to 20 to 25
knots across the lake. That being said, if the cold air advection
behind the low is strong enough, we could see gusts up to 30 knots
or even gales (see the 12z run of the GFS for an example). These
stronger winds look to die down to 20 knots or less again by
Saturday night as ridging starts building back in once again over
the region. The light winds continue Sunday into next Monday as high
pressure ridging dominates the Upper Midwest.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
  Beach Hazards Statement until 9 PM EDT this evening for MIZ014.

Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GS
LONG TERM...TAP
AVIATION...Rolfson
MARINE...TAP