999
FXUS63 KMQT 300720
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
320 AM EDT Thu May 30 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

-Morning frost this morning gives way to a dry and warm day with
mostly sunny skies.

- Borderline elevated fire weather conditions expected today away
from the lakeshores. Fire weather should be mitigated by light winds
though.

- Warming up through early next week.

- A more unsettled pattern returns on Friday, continuing into
  next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Issued at 159 AM EDT Thu May 30 2024

A calm and clear night has been observed across Upper Michigan. With
an abundance of dry air overhead, coupled with a surface high and
light winds, effective radiational cooling has been observed. This
has allowed temps to fall into the 30s for most interior locations
of Upper Michigan. With plenty of time still left for longwave
radiational energy to escape into space, we should continue cooling
for the remainder of the overnight period. Widespread frost is still
expected and hard freezes can`t be ruled out, particularly across the
interior west or where localized terrain enables cold pooling in
valleys. With this in mind, no changes were made to the inherited
Frost Advisory.

Temperatures should begin rebounding with the sunrise. With the dry
airmass overhead and the surface ridge shifting east, southerly
winds should begin advecting in a warmer airmass. With no clouds in
the sky, we should be able to climb into the 70s. Lakeshore areas
should be limited to the 60s though given today`s lake breezes off
Lake Superior and synoptic southerly flow off Lake Michigan.

Model soundings highlight effective mixing with this warmer airmass,
and we should be able to mix drier air aloft down the surface. This
should support RH values dipping into the 20s away from the
lakeshores. Fire weather concerns should be mitigated today though,
given that winds are expected to remain below 15 mph.

&&

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 319 AM EDT Thu May 30 2024

Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb trough over the northern
plains with a ridge over the upper Great Lakes 00z Fri. More
shortwave energy moves into the northern plains 00z Sat with the
ridge over the lower Great Lakes. This energy then moves into the
upper Great Lakes on Sat into Sat night. Kept pops confined to the
west on Fri into Fri evening and then with a weak front in the area,
have chance pops in for late Fri night into Sat. Did cut pops back a
bit though and kept them in the chance category. NBM was going
likely which seemed too high given that the system with this front
is heading northeast away from the area and the front is weakening.

In the extended, the GFS and ECMWF show a 500 mb trough in the
northern Rockies 12z Sun which moves quickly into the upper Great
Lakes 12z Mon. More troughing then moves into the northern Rockies
12z Tue which moves into the upper Great Lakes 12z Wed. This trough
remains over the area into 12z Thu. Active weather pattern continues
with a sfc front hanging around the area and temperatures will stay
above normal this period. Mon looks to be a widespread rain.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 121 AM EDT Thu May 30 2024

Under high pressure, VFR will prevail at all TAF sites.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 319 AM EDT Thu May 30 2024

High pressure slowly shifts southeast over the Great Lakes Basin
into this weekend. Winds stay at or below 20 knots through the
forecast period with no major systems in the vicinity of Lake
Superior.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
  Frost Advisory until 10 AM EDT /9 AM CDT/ this morning for
     MIZ002-004>007-009>014-084-085.

Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JTP
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...RE/Voss
MARINE...07