Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 180731

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
331 AM EDT Sun Mar 18 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 331 AM EDT SUN MAR 18 2018

Quiet weather will continue through tonight although the passage of
a backdoor cold front from Ontario this morning will bring an
increase in clouds this afternoon into tonight.

Today, a backdoor cold front will push into the area from Ontario
with high pressure building southward from northern Ontario as a
shortwave slides southeast from James Bay. Model soundings indicate
very shallow and limited moisture available with the front. Any
weak/sheared clipper shortwaves in the confluent nw flow may bring
an increase in mid clouds but not expecting any pcpn given how
shallow the low-level moisture is (to around 1000 ft). Temperatures
will be cooler across the north today with highs generally in the
lower 30s nw and north central with a chilly ne flow off Lake
Superior. Cooling won`t reach the WI border until late in the day so
highs will still reach into the mid to upper 40s there.

Tonight, expect min temps dropping generally into the teens under
partly to mostly cloudy skies.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 251 PM EDT SAT MAR 17 2018

Dry weather will continue through most of next week. Split flow
pattern will prevail across the U.S. Confluent mid/upper level flow
will support high pressure through northern Ontario into the
northern Great Lakes. This will keep any precipitation chances south
of the Great Lakes. Models differ on how the amplifying upper
pattern will evolve by next weekend. As upper troughing pushes out
of the western U.S. a surface low should develop over the Plains and
push toward the OH Valley by next weekend. A dissipating band of
light warm advection snow could affect the western U.P. Friday night
into early Saturday.

High temps through the middle of next week will remain a little
below normal dominated by cool northeasterly low level flow.
Temperature will modify closer to normal by late in the work week.

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 139 AM EDT SUN MAR 18 2018

A cold front moving in from the NE late tonight and Sun morning
should lead to reduced CIGs at KCMX and KSAW, but not precipitation.
The exact height of those CIGs is uncertain but there will likely
be a period of MVFR conditions.

.MARINE...(For the 4 AM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 331 AM EDT SUN MAR 18 2018

High pressure building in from Ontario will produce ne winds around
25 knots over western Lake Superior this afternoon and tonight.
Otherwise no significant winds are expected through the forecast
period, with winds generally staying at or below 20 knots.

Upper Michigan...
Lake Superior...
Lake Michigan...


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