Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN
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453 FXUS64 KMRX 011126 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 726 AM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 253 AM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024 Key Messages: 1. Cooler and drier air moving in for the period. Discussion: Cooler and drier air will be moving in today behind the cold front as surface high pressure centered over the western Great Lakes region slides southeast and builds into our area. We will see plenty of sunshine today with lower humidity and high temperatures generally near to several degrees below normal. Relative humidity values will dip into the 30s in most locations this afternoon. Low temperatures tonight will be below seasonal normals, along with a mostly clear to partly cloudy sky. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 253 AM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024 Key Messages: 1. Dry to mostly dry conditions through Wednesday, with increasing chances of diurnal showers and storms Thursday into the weekend. 2. Hot conditions expected to continue through the week, humidity returns late week. Discussion: The story of this summer continues with the strong 594 dm ridge parked over the southeast for much of this week, shifting towards the Atlantic Seaboard this weekend as a series of upper shortwaves push down across the Northern US. Humidity takes a bit to fully return to the area, with weak southerly flow gradually increasing dewpoints from a manageable Tuesday to a more uncomfortable Thursday. Looking at GFS and Euro ensemble probabilities of rain, still think NBM is overdoing PoPs on Wednesday and likely again on Thursday, so lowered percentages to reflect the global ensembles. A subsidence inversion aloft will act to stymie any fledgling updrafts, similar to conditions experienced already this summer under similar circumstances. As we go from Friday into the weekend, diurnal chances for showers and thunderstorms look to improve, with upper level thermodynamics and greater surface moisture more favorable for thunderstorm development. The upper level trough and shortwaves over the northern US look to push a frontal boundary down into the wider MidSouth region, which may provide additional support for convective development. With the approach of the front at the very end of the period, it is not yet clear if the front will push through or if it gets washed out around Tennessee. Heat indices each afternoon Thursday through Saturday may flirt with heat advisory criteria in the southern Tennessee valley, dependent in part on how strong surface moisture becomes. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 517 AM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024 VFR conditions are expected for the period all sites. Winds will generally be from the north and northeast less than 10kts today but will be above 10kts and gusty at times at CHA. Winds will become light all sites tonight. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Chattanooga Airport, TN 90 68 91 72 / 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 86 64 91 68 / 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 85 64 90 67 / 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 82 55 88 62 / 0 0 0 0 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM... LONG TERM....Wellington AVIATION...