Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
952 FXUS64 KMRX 210128 AAA AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Morristown TN 928 PM EDT Fri Sep 20 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 926 PM EDT Fri Sep 20 2024 Temperatures are falling a little faster than forecast, so hourly temp/dewpoint grids will need an update. Other than that, the forecast looks in good shape. Fog is not expected to be as dense or widespread as last night as afternoon dewpoints were lower today compared to yesterday. Still, some valleys and rivers/lakes could see some fog, mainly in northern sections. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Saturday) Issued at 305 PM EDT Fri Sep 20 2024 If you love today then you will like tomorrow. Daytime temps will be about the same, maybe slightly more humid. Patchy morning fog for the northeast third, and during the afternoon there may be isolated showers over VA and the northern mountains. Otherwise, lots of similarities with today because our controlling ridge of high pressure will remain in place, allowing only the weakest shortwave on its northern perimeter to bring those isolated showers tomorrow afternoon. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through next Friday) Issued at 305 PM EDT Fri Sep 20 2024 Key Messages: 1. Hot and mostly dry through the weekend. Max temps around 10 degrees above normal 2. Above normal temperatures remain through Tuesday, but with increasing chances of precipitation. Mostly dry conditions in place through Sunday as we will be under the influence of high pressure just to our south. Temperatures will be around 10 degrees above normal on Sunday, with Heat Indices in the mid to upper 90s across the central and southern TN Valley. By Monday the ridge begins to flatten as a shortwave moves into the Missouri River Valley. Due to decreasing heights, and weak divergence from the upper jet, POPs will increase on Monday. POPs will be diurnally driven. On Tuesday, the ridge axis shifts to our east as the aforementioned shortwave swings up into the Great Lakes. A slightly stronger 300mb jet is overhead on Tuesday, resulting in slightly higher POPs than Monday. Wednesday and beyond, the forecast becomes much more uncertain. Models generally show a long wave trough diving down into the central U.S. and moving east. However, the evolution and placement of this feature is in high disagreement. Will leave slight chance and chance NBM POPs alone as of now. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 721 PM EDT Fri Sep 20 2024 Fog potential at TRI appears less tonight compared to the last few nights. Observed dewpoints this afternoon are several degrees lower than this time yesterday, and forecast temperatures are warmer. However, there is model guidance indicating fog will form, so will have IFR vis prevailing in the morning, with a TEMPO for LIFR conditions. TYS and CHA will remain VFR. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Chattanooga Airport, TN 94 66 94 69 / 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 91 63 91 67 / 10 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 91 63 91 66 / 10 0 10 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 87 61 86 62 / 10 0 10 0 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DGS AVIATION...DGS