766
FXUS64 KMRX 011854
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
254 PM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 253 PM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024

Key Messages:

1. Near to slightly below normal temps tonight.

2. Dry and warmer tomorrow as ridging strengthens across the region.

Discussion:

Near to slightly below normal temps overnight under mostly clear
skies. Ridging strengthens across the region tomorrow, allowing for
warmer but near normal temperatures. Southerly flow returns in the
low levels tomorrow, meaning dewpoints will be slightly higher. This
means afternoon RH values will be higher compared to today, but
still below normal for this time of year.


&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 253 PM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024

Key Messages:

1. Dry to mostly dry conditions through Wednesday, with increasing
chances of diurnal showers and storms Thursday into the weekend.

2. Hot conditions expected to continue through the extended,
humidity returns late week.

Discussion:

Overall, not much has amassed in terms of changes to the messaging &
talking points of the extended period from previous forecasts.
Conditions are expected to remain dry and warm through the early
portions of the week. Increasing chances of diurnal convection
returns Thursday as southwesterly surface winds ramp up moisture
advection with dewpoints rising into the 70s area wide, continuing
into the weekend.

The ECMWF is most aggressive with a surface front draping through
the Ohio Valley for Independence Day. This has lead to relatively
higher PoPs in comparison to other guidance such as GFS, NAM, and
Canadian, all of which seem to have a better grasp on the influence
of upper level ridging and associated subsidence. Have blended
aforementioned models with NBM to pull shower/tstorm wording to
slight chance in the valley to chance in higher elevations.
Additionally, portions of the southern and central TN valley will
observe heat indices from the upper 90s to lower 100s so make sure
to take plenty of breaks in shaded areas and stay hydrated if
spending time our doors.

Upper level troughing swinging across the mid section of the CONUS
will lead to increasing chances of daily showers and storms Friday
and into the weekend. Slight relief from the heat may occur post
FROPA over the weekend but overall conditions will remain summer-
like.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 122 PM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024

VFR conditions expected at all sites through the period. Gusty
north winds at CHA will subside this evening but will return late
in the period. Lighter north winds expected at TYS and TRI, around 10kts
or less. TYS could see a brief gust up to 20kts during peak
heating this afternoon but not enough confidence to include in
forecast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             70  91  72  93 /   0   0   0  10
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  65  91  69  93 /   0   0   0  10
Oak Ridge, TN                       65  91  69  92 /   0   0   0  10
Tri Cities Airport, TN              59  87  63  90 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM....KRS
AVIATION...