Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Missoula, MT
Issued by NWS Missoula, MT
385 FXUS65 KMSO 220642 AFDMSO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Missoula MT 1242 AM MDT Sat Jun 22 2024 .DISCUSSION...Lots of movement in the upper atmosphere, our current weather maker a persistent trough slides east and is briefly replaced by a ridge today. Both today and Sunday will be quite warm with upper 80s western MT and upper 90s north-central ID. The ridge is quickly broken down on Sunday with an uptick in winds during the afternoon. Gusty winds across Flathead Lake may cause choppy conditions, use caution if out recreating. The bigger concern will be in the Beaverhead-DeerLodge National Forest where gusts to 30 mph in addition to dry conditions will warrant extra security of campfires or barbeque`s. The ridge quickly rebuilds early next week and very warm conditions return. High temperatures could be 10 to 15 degrees above normal by the middle of the week. The normal first 90F degree day for Missoula is June 18th, if we reach 90F on Wednesday (26 June) it would be similar to 2022 when our 1st 90F was 27 June. The question is do we have sufficient soil moisture to slow afternoon warming and delay till July the 1st 90F in Missoula. After Wednesday, the models are suggesting a feature to affect the Northern Rockies. There is a wide range of solutions from a open wave to a cutoff low. Currently, there is a 30% chance of receiving 0.10" of precipitation south of I-90 and 40% north of I-90. && .AVIATION...High pressure will settle over the Northern Rockies airspace. Expect VFR conditions with light, terrain driven winds this afternoon. && .MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. ID...None. && $$