387
FXUS66 KMTR 240413
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
913 PM PDT Sun Jun 23 2024

...New UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 237 AM PDT Sun Jun 23 2024

Somewhat cooler temperatures in the interior today, continuing into
the beginning of the work week with a slight cooldown midweek. Very
low chance of elevated convection and associated dry lightning in
the southern Central Coast.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 906 PM PDT Sun Jun 23 2024

Forecast is looking to be on track for tonight. No updates were
made. Evening satellite showed clearing skies in the visible with
the last of the daylight and nighttime microphysics difference
band is showing some low clouds lingering in Monterey Bay. Per
usual in the region, look for low clouds to develop overnight in
coastal areas. However, with high pressure ridging into the
region, these low clouds will be hard pressed to make much inland
intrusion. Overall a classic Bay Area / Central Coast summertime
pattern.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 115 PM PDT Sun Jun 23 2024

Stratus and/or fog has retreated to the coast as of early afternoon
with coastal areas expected to warm into the upper 50`s to 70`s.
However, inland areas will remain quite warm this afternoon and
reach 5-15 degrees above normal for this time of year, reaching into
the mid 80`s to upper 90`s with a few of the warmest interior
locations approaching 100 degrees. Only a few isolated spots across
the interior will reach Moderate HeatRisk, thus we don`t have a Heat
Advisory in effect for today.

As for high-based convection, looking less likely to see development
today as mid-upper level moisture is not sufficient enough. Looking
like the potential (10-15%) is still there for Monday evening
through Tuesday morning however, especially across the Central
Coast. Tomorrow`s high temperatures will be similar to this
afternoon (maybe a few degrees cooler) with the pattern changing
very little, other than increased moisture aloft from the south.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 237 AM PDT Sun Jun 23 2024

The mid-layer moisture continues to push through the region and will
push across the Bay Area on Tuesday. In addition to the mid-to-
upper level clouds that will typically accompany the moisture, the
chance for elevated convection mainly across the Central Coast
remains through Tuesday. Interior temperatures will cool off on
Wednesday and Thursday, with highs in the 80s to the mid 90s, as
an upper level trough comes into the West Coast and promotes
improved onshore flow. CPC outlooks continue to suggest that
temperatures above seasonal averages will continue into the first
week of July.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 431 PM PDT Sun Jun 23 2024

Satellite shows clear skies over the region with a few low clouds
south of SF Bay, near the coast. Low stratus will return tonight
bring a mix of IFR and LIFR conditions over Monterey Bay terminals.
Some models hint that low ceilings will return for the remainder of
the terminals, but had low confidence to include at this moment.
Although probability is low for MVFR/IFR conditions to develop
tonight, SCT and FEW low clouds are still possible and are indicated
in TAFs. Any terminals that experience status overnight, will see
lifting to VFR between 16-18Z. Moderate to breezy onshore winds will
diminish to light tonight before rebuilding to moderate to
relatively breezy Monday morning.

Vicinity of SFO...VFR with a few low clouds lingering near the
terminal. Due to persistence, confidence is moderate that VFR will
prevail through the TAF period. Models hint at MVFR developing early
Monday morning, but will monitor if any updates are needed to TAFs.
Onshore breezy winds diminish tonight before rebuilding to breezy
Monday afternoon.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR currently, but IFR/LIFR conditions are
expected to return tonight. Low to moderate confidence on exact
timing but models show agreement near 05-07Z return of IFR
conditions, then dropping to LIFR overnight. Expect clearing near 16-
17Z.

&&

.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Friday)
Issued at 431 PM PDT Sun Jun 23 2024

  Hazardous conditions for small crafts persist across the
northern  coastal waters through the early work week. Fresh to
strong  northwest winds continue over the northern coastal waters.
Fresh  gusts remain possible over the southern outer waters.
Beginning this  afternoon, near gale force gusts will develop over
the northern  outer coastal waters. Gusts will diminish across the
northern outer  coastal waters beginning Monday afternoon and
gradually weakening to  moderate to fresh strength by Tuesday
morning. Significant wave  heights over the northern waters will
build to 10-11 feet through  Monday before wave heights abate
below 10 feet by Tuesday.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 AM PDT Monday for Northern San
Francisco Bay Shoreline. Bayside Marin County will bear any
noticable impacts.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Tuesday for Pt Arena to Pt
     Reyes 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BFG/RGass
LONG TERM....RGass
AVIATION...SO
MARINE...SO/Kennedy

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