368
FXUS66 KMTR 230938
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
238 AM PDT Sun Jun 23 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 237 AM PDT Sun Jun 23 2024

Somewhat cooler temperatures in the interior today, continuing into
the beginning of the work week with a slight cooldown midweek. Very
low chance of elevated convection and associated dry lightning in
the southern Central Coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 237 AM PDT Sun Jun 23 2024

Skies remain generally clear throughout the region, save for stratus
that has developed around the Monterey Bay region, and stratus
development for the rest of the morning is limited to the coast and
potentially the North Bay valleys and northern SF Bay region. Low
temperatures tonight range from the low to mid 50s in the lower
elevations to the 60s to low 70s in the higher elevations. With the
upper level ridge moving off to the east, highs will be somewhat
cooler today, with highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s in the interior
valleys, perhaps close to 100 in the warmest spots, with highs in
the 70s expected across the Bayshore and the mid 50s to mid 60s
across the Pacific coast.

The main forecast issue continues to be the potential for elevated
convection over the southern sections of Monterey and San Benito
counties this afternoon and evening. A shot of mid-level moisture
will come into the region from the south, ahead of a weak upper
level trough. The latest 3km NAM forecast soundings for Paso Robles
continue to show a moistening low to mid layer and respectable lapse
rates. Below the moist layer, conditions remain dry, which will
hamper any precipitation from any cells that pop up, but will also
raise the risk of dry lightning, especially with MUCAPE levels above
1000 J/kg. All that said, the potential for any storms to develop
continues to be low, hovering around 10-15%. One factor that limits
storm potential is that the synoptic forcing remains to our north
and west, requiring any storms that do develop to be topographically-
driven. Confidence in any fire weather concerns remains too low to
message as a fire weather headline. The day shift will take another
look at the forecast as updated model output comes in.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 237 AM PDT Sun Jun 23 2024

The mid-layer moisture continues to push through the region and will
push across the Bay Area on Tuesday. In addition to the mid- to
upper level clouds that will typically accompany the moisture, the
chance for elevated convection mainly across the Central Coast
remains through Tuesday, although as with Sunday, the chances are
very low. Interior temperatures will cool off on Wednesday and
Thursday, with highs in the 80s to the mid 90s, as an upper level
trough comes into the West Coast and promotes improved onshore flow.
CPC outlooks continue to suggest that temperatures above seasonal
averages will continue into the first week of July.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1031 PM PDT Sat Jun 22 2024

Satellite imagery shows stratus across the Monterey Bay region,
with the rest of the region generally clear. Stratus will build
across the coastal regions through the night, with moderate
confidence of ceilings at the North Bay and northern SF Bay
terminals. Stratus will retreat to the immediate coast Sunday
morning with breezy onshore winds developing in the afternoon and
evening. Stratus expected to build back in Sunday evening, mostly
after the end of the 24-hour TAF period.

Vicinity of SFO...Currently VFR. Moderate confidence of an IFR
ceiling at the terminal early morning on Sunday, with some high-
resolution models still showing VFR through the night. If ceilings
do form, expect clearing by 16Z. Breezy west-northwest winds with
gusts up to 20 knots will develop on Sunday afternoon, diminishing
in the evening. Some model output is showing a chance for
ceilings on Sunday night, mostly after the end of the TAF period.

SFO Bridge Approach...Lower confidence of stratus impacts to the
south of the terminal. Otherwise similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...LIFR stratus through the night with the
chance for fog at MRY. Clearing is expected later on Sunday
morning, with breezy onshore winds developing in the afternoon.
Stratus will return to the terminals Sunday evening near the end
of the TAF period.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 237 AM PDT Sun Jun 23 2024

Strong, northwest winds persist over the northern outer waters
through Monday, creating hazardous conditions for small craft.
Fresh gusts remain possible over the southern outer waters and
portions of the northern interior coastal waters. Wave heights up
to 10 feet are expected throughout the northern outer waters with
significant wave heights diminishing below 10 feet by the middle
of the work week. Light southerly swell and moderate NW swell
continue over the coastal waters through the beginning of next
week.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 9 PM PDT this
evening for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Tuesday for Pt Arena to Pt
     Reyes 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DialH
LONG TERM....DialH
AVIATION...DialH
MARINE...DialH

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