Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA
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013 FXUS66 KMTR 232017 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 117 PM PDT Sun Jun 23 2024 ...New SHORT TERM... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 237 AM PDT Sun Jun 23 2024 Somewhat cooler temperatures in the interior today, continuing into the beginning of the work week with a slight cooldown midweek. Very low chance of elevated convection and associated dry lightning in the southern Central Coast. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Monday) Issued at 115 PM PDT Sun Jun 23 2024 Stratus and/or fog has retreated to the coast as of early afternoon with coastal areas expected to warm into the upper 50`s to 70`s. However, inland areas will remain quite warm this afternoon and reach 5-15 degrees above normal for this time of year, reaching into the mid 80`s to upper 90`s with a few of the warmest interior locations approaching 100 degrees. Only a few isolated spots across the interior will reach Moderate HeatRisk, thus we don`t have a Heat Advisory in effect for today. As for high-based convection, looking less likely to see development today as mid-upper level moisture is not sufficient enough. Looking like the potential (10-15%) is still there for Monday evening through Tuesday morning however, especially across the Central Coast. Tomorrow`s high temperatures will be similar to this afternoon (maybe a few degrees cooler) with the pattern changing very little, other than increased moisture aloft from the south. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Saturday) Issued at 237 AM PDT Sun Jun 23 2024 The mid-layer moisture continues to push through the region and will push across the Bay Area on Tuesday. In addition to the mid-to- upper level clouds that will typically accompany the moisture, the chance for elevated convection mainly across the Central Coast remains through Tuesday. Interior temperatures will cool off on Wednesday and Thursday, with highs in the 80s to the mid 90s, as an upper level trough comes into the West Coast and promotes improved onshore flow. CPC outlooks continue to suggest that temperatures above seasonal averages will continue into the first week of July. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1043 AM PDT Sun Jun 23 2024 VFR across the board with stratus and IFR-LIFR conditions to return overnight. Patchy fog is likely to develop across the North Bay tonight with reduced visibilities and ceiling heights expected at STS and APC. Moderate confidence that fog will impact STS, low to moderate confidence that fog will impact APC. Guidance indicates stratus may potentially reach SFO and OAK overnight but confidence is low to moderate. Marine layer depth should remain similar to last night which did not see stratus reach SFO or OAK. Current thinking is that forecast RH values will be high enough to support scattered low level clouds with stratus being confined closer to the coastline. Onshore winds last through the TAF period with winds becoming more moderate during the day before weakening and becoming light overnight. Vicinity of SFO...VFR with low confidence that MVFR-IFR CIGs will develop overnight. Guidance was split on if CIGs will reach SFO overnight with NBM and GLAMP taking the most progressive stance on widespread stratus cover. Leaning towards stratus staying confined closer to the coast due to a fairly compressed marine layer but forecast RH values support scattered low level clouds overnight. Onshore flow prevails through the TAF period with winds out of the west and northwest expected. Winds becoming more moderate during the day before weakening overnight. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR becoming IFR-LIFR overnight. Onshore flow prevails through the TAF period with moderate winds during the day becoming light overnight. Stratus is expected to return tonight by the late evening at MRY and overnight at SNS. Confidence is slightly lower on the timing of stratus arrival. Guidance indicated a wide time range between 04Z to 08Z for stratus to arrive at MRY and a slightly shorter time frame for stratus arrival at SNS between 08Z to 11Z. && .MARINE... (Today through Friday) Issued at 902 AM PDT Sun Jun 23 2024 Hazardous conditions for small crafts persist across the northern coastal waters through the early work week. Strong northwest to northerly winds continue over the northern coastal outer waters. Fresh gusts remain possible over the southern outer waters and portions of the northern interior coastal waters. Winds will strengthen over the northern coastal waters today with strong to near gale force gusts possible through Monday morning. Significant wave heights over the northern waters will gradually build to 10-11 feet Sunday into Monday before beginning to diminish Tuesday. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-SF Bay N of Bay Bridge. Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Tuesday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...RGass LONG TERM....DialH AVIATION...Kennedy MARINE...Kennedy Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea www.twitter.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea