723
FXUS66 KMTR 251036
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
336 AM PDT Tue Jun 25 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 315 AM PDT Tue Jun 25 2024

Elevated thunderstorms, with isolated to scattered coverage may
produce lightning strikes capable of igniting grass fires today
into the early evening hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 315 AM PDT Tue Jun 25 2024

Lift associated with an upper level low approaching the Pacific
Northwest over the next couple of days, is producing scattered
showers over the open water to our west. Lightning even farther west
and closer to the base of the trough can currently be seen tracking
northeast overnight. The persistent ridging over the desert
southwest will deflect the strongest energy associated with the
trough to our north over the next twenty four hours. Scattered
showers that develop this afternoon in an area of upper level
diffluent flow (mainly across Monterey Bay and points north) will be
capable of producing primarily elevated thunderstorms with limited
coverage. There is some concern for any elevated storms producing
lightning strikes across the northern half of our area being capable
of igniting a grassfire. However, instability is weak with little
to no CAPE evident. Later tonight into early Wednesday, upper
level flow across our latitude becomes more zonal as the upper
level low moves onshore into Washington state. Normal to slightly
above normal max temperatures inland today will cool a few degrees
tomorrow.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 315 AM PDT Tue Jun 25 2024

The southern extent of an upper level trough axis will shift east
across our area Thursday morning, as upper level flow shifts from
zonal to northwest and shortwave ridging over the Pacific Northwest
takes shape in the wake of the trough. The more amplified portion of
the upper ridge will remain north of our area and another upper
trough moves onshore over the weekend. Temperatures will cool nicely
from today`s peak, for the end of the week into the weekend as
cooler temperatures aloft spread over our region. A warmup looks
likely for the beginning of next week as broad troughing is
established across western CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1047 PM PDT Mon Jun 24 2024

The most important thing this TAF cycle is the low confidence-high
impact possibility for high-based convection. Otherwise, currently
VFR at all terminals except MRY. VFR through the TAF period at all
terminals except the Monterey Bay terminals of MRY and SNS which
will likely see LIFR conditions overnight. Winds become variable
overnight but otherwise remain onshore through the TAF period.

Vicinity of SFO...Currently VFR with northwesterly flow. VFR through
the TAF period. Winds will prevail out of the west/northwest through
the TAF period, becoming gusty tomorrow afternoon. Low confidence on
MVFR stratus impacting the terminal in the early-to-mid morning
hours.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Currently LIFR with northerly flow at MRY
and VFR with northwesterly flow at SNS. Winds become variable
overnight before prevailing out of the west/northwest by mid-morning
tomorrow. LIFR conditions will likely impact both terminals through
the mid-morning hours.

&&

.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Sunday)
Issued at 1047 PM PDT Mon Jun 24 2024

  Hazardous conditions for small crafts persist across the
northern  coastal waters through Tuesday morning then diminish
Tuesday afternoon. Fresh to strong northwest winds continue over
the  northern coastal waters while moderate northwest winds
continue  over the southern coastal waters. Wave heights will
begin to  diminish below 10 feet by Tuesday. Conditions hazardous
to small  crafts are likely to return by mid to late week with
widespread  fresh to strong winds expected over the coastal waters
Wednesday  and continuing into the weekend.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 315 AM PDT Tue Jun 25 2024

There is a slight chance of thunderstorms this afternoon, with
limited coverage. Given the elevated nature of any storms that
may develop, any rainfall amounts, if any, will be light with
some VIRGA possible and subsequent gusty winds. Any strikes that
do occur may cause a fire start in the fine fuels.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM to 9 PM PDT Wednesday for Mry Bay-
     Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 9 PM PDT Wednesday for Pigeon
     Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt
     Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-
     10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT this morning for Pt Arena to
     Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM....JM
AVIATION...Sarment
MARINE...SO

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