Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA
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839 FXUS66 KMTR 260803 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 103 AM PDT Thu Sep 26 2024 ...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 103 AM PDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Expect a gradual warming trend through Friday as high pressure builds over the Desert Southwest. Temperatures return to near seasonal averages for the upcoming weekend with a warming trend into Tuesday. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 103 AM PDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Widespread cloud cover has returned, in some cases never left near the coast, with ceilings between 700-1,500 feet. Temperatures however are likely to cool into the low-to-upper 50`s across the region this morning. Again, cannot rule out mist and/or light drizzle this morning in typically favored spots in response to the deepening marine layer at just above 2,000 feet in depth per the Fort Ord Profiler. Today, we kick off the warming trend with temperatures near or slightly above seasonal averages. Low clouds will clear by late morning or early afternoon. Afternoon maximum temperatures are forecast to be in the mid 80`s to low 90`s in the warmest interior locations, 70`s to low 80`s just inland, and upper 50`s to mid 70`s near the coast. Tonight, expecting subtle warming for most urban areas by a few degrees but much warmer in the higher elevations as the air mass warms in response to high pressure building over the Desert Southwest. Thus, expecting temperatures to range from the 60`s to mid 70`s in the higher terrain. Low clouds will be less widespread overnight, yet pose a bit of a challenge forecast wise as the marine layer compresses under the aforementioned high pressure. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 103 AM PDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Friday will be the warmest day as we head into the weekend with a ~590mb upper level high building over the Desert Southwest. As such, expecting more widespread 90`s across the interior, 80`s to low 90`s around the Bay Shoreline, and upper 60`s to mid 80`s near the coast. The ridge will be flatten on Saturday and Sunday as an upper level trough moves into the Pacific Northwest. However, this will only bring temperatures back down to seasonal norms. Another warming trend will resume on Monday with high pressure becoming the dominate feature aloft with continued warming into Tuesday. CPC outlooks continue to show a lean towards temperatures above, and precipitation below, seasonal averages through the first week of October. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1049 PM PDT Wed Sep 25 2024 Coastal stratus and fog /IFR-MVFR/ will continue to move inland tonight and Thursday morning. Conditions improving to MVFR-VFR later in the morning and afternoon. Onshore winds continuing during the period. Vicinity of SFO...MVFR stratus ceiling developing tonight and continuing to 18z Thursday, then VFR for the remainder of the day and the evening. West wind 5 to 15 knots. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...IFR-MVFR in stratus and fog tonight and Thursday morning. Conditions lifting to MVFR-VFR by late Thursday morning and afternoon. At least patchy IFR-MVFR due to stratus and fog returning Thursday evening and night. Onshore winds 5 to 12 knots. && .MARINE... (Tonight through next Tuesday) Issued at 1039 PM PDT Wed Sep 25 2024 A parade of low pressure systems to the north will support moderate to fresh northwesterly breezes through the period. Over the outer waters, seas will be rough and gusts will be strong. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Friday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 AM PDT Friday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...RGass LONG TERM....RGass AVIATION...Canepa MARINE...Sarment Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea www.twitter.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea