Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA
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120 FXUS66 KMTR 192322 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 422 PM PDT Thu Sep 19 2024 ...New AVIATION, MARINE... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 130 PM PDT Thu Sep 19 2024 There remains a chance for showers and thunderstorms across the interior Central Coast through this evening. A warming trend is on tap by this weekend and into early next week with temperatures rebounding to near or slightly above seasonal averages. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Friday) Issued at 130 PM PDT Thu Sep 19 2024 The upper level low that brought rain showers and thunderstorms to the interior Central Coast this morning remains south of the Monterey Bay region. As it moves onshore, there will be a chance of additional convection this afternoon over the aforementioned region as the air mass aloft is marginally unstable. The warmest conditions this afternoon will be across the North Bay and East Bay with interior areas warming into the low 80`s with 60`s and 70`s as you move closer to the coast. The marine layer is projected to deepen tonight bringing low clouds locally inland to the coastal adjacent valleys. The upper level trough will push further inland Friday, yet its effects will still linger with temperatures remaining below seasonal averages. Tomorrow expecting more widespread 80`s across the interior with the potential for a few spots to reach 90 degrees such as Lake Berryessa. Elsewhere, 60`s and 70`s near the coast and San Francisco Bay Shoreline. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 130 PM PDT Thu Sep 19 2024 Warming will continue into Saturday and moreso on Sunday as a ridge of high pressure builds over the eastern Pacific. HeatRisk increase by Monday and Tuesday with moderate risk across the interior. During this time, evening clouds will spread into the coastal adjacent valleys through early morning and then retreat back to the coast by the afternoon. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 421 PM PDT Thu Sep 19 2024 Currently VFR everywhere except the Monterey Bay terminals of MRY and SNS which are enveloped in MVFR ceilings. The blanket of stratus off the coast will filter inland, impacting all terminals tonight in the form of ceilings. Rain shower activity will continue to diminish through the night as the low pressure system finally moves out of the area. Widespread VFR expected by tomorrow afternoon. Vicinity of SFO...Currently VFR with northwesterly flow. High confidence in a low-end MVFR ceiling impacting the terminal from this evening through tomorrow morning. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...Currently MVFR with westerly flow at MRY and MVFR with northwesterly flow at SNS with high confidence in both terminals further deteriorating to IFR early this evening. Earlier thunderstorm activity has transitioned into rain shower activity south of the terminals. Winds will prevail out of the west through the TAF period. VFR will prevail by tomorrow afternoon. && .MARINE... (Tonight through next Tuesday) Issued at 421 PM PDT Thu Sep 19 2024 Moderate northwesterly winds continue over the majority of the coastal waters. Across the far northern outer waters, rough seas return and northwesterly winds continue to strengthen. Winds and seas will then remain elevated through the weekend but begin to ease early next week. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Saturday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...RGass LONG TERM....RGass AVIATION...Sarment MARINE...Kennedy Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea www.twitter.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea