Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA
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684 FXUS66 KMTR 180623 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 1123 PM PDT Tue Sep 17 2024 ...New AVIATION, MARINE... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 1233 PM PDT Tue Sep 17 2024 The next weather system will bright light rain to parts of the region on Wednesday and then taper off from north to south on Thursday. A warming and drying trend is expected by this upcoming weekend and into early next week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 924 PM PDT Tue Sep 17 2024 At this hour, mid level clouds are passing through the region ahead of our next cold front. As a result, skies are overcast across the area, and temperatures are on the cool side sitting in the mid 50s for most locations. Temperatures are running 1-2 degrees cooler compared to this time yesterday in the interior regions, and generally 1-2 degrees warmer around the bays and along the immediate coastline. Chances of light rain are still expected for early Wednesday morning. Most regions will only see a few hundredths of rainfall, with the wettest locations (generally higher elevations) only seeing around a tenth. Isolated peaks may see amounts closer to 0.2" at most. All for now. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Wednesday) Issued at 1233 PM PDT Tue Sep 17 2024 Another upper level low will approach the coast tonight and move across on Wednesday brining generally light rainfall to the region. Coastal drizzle will be possible ahead of the system tonight but transition to light rain showers throughout the day tomorrow. By tomorrow afternoon, the greatest potential for thunderstorms will be across the North Bay with a ~15% (a non-zero chance elsewhere). Rainfall amounts are expected to be light, not amounting to more than 0.10" in most locations expect for locally higher totals in the coastal ranges or where any stronger showers develop. Lastly, winds will not be a concern with this passing system with only 15-25 mph onshore gusts. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through next Monday) Issued at 1233 PM PDT Tue Sep 17 2024 Rain showers will linger into Thursday morning across the Central Coast, tapering off from north to south throughout the afternoon and ending by the evening. Friday looks to remain cool as the mid/upper level trough begins to exit the region but still having an influence. Temperatures over the weekend will trend upward towards seasonal averages. The marine layer also looks to return as a result with night and morning low clouds likely into next week. Low clouds will the retreat to the coast by the afternoon each day throughout the week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1122 PM PDT Tue Sep 17 2024 Mid-level clouds as well as IFR and MVFR CIGs build through the night last into the mid to late morning with light rain expected in the mid to late morning. Pockets of drizzle and mist will affect the coast as well as the Bays and STS in the late night ahead of the rain chances and lingering slightly after. Winds stay light to moderate through the morning. Widespread VFR returns for the TAF sites into Wednesday afternoon, but status lingers on the immediate coast. Expect moderate winds to build into the afternoon and linger into the evening. Coastal cloud cover moves slightly early Tuesday evening, affecting both bays with IFR and MVFR CIGS becoming widespread later that night. Vicinity of SFO...MVFR CIGs build into the late night and last into the late morning with some shower activity in the mid morning. Expect light to moderate winds overnight. CIGs erode as winds build in the early afternoon. Winds will reduce slightly into Tuesday evening and MVFR CIGs return in the late evening and early night. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...MVFR/IFR CIGs with mist and drizzle ahead of light scattered showers in the mid morning. CIGs scatter and winds become more moderate into Wednesday afternoon. MVFR CIGs return early Wednesday evening as winds reduce. && .MARINE... (Tonight through next Monday) Issued at 1122 PM PDT Tue Sep 17 2024 Northwesterly breezes will be gentle to moderate, increasing to become moderate to fresh over the outer waters by Thursday. Seas will be moderate, building to become rough in the outer waters by Thursday. There`s up to a 15% chance for thunderstorms tomorrow which could produce lightning, locally heavy rainfall, locally gusty winds, and small hail. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...RGass LONG TERM....RGass AVIATION...Murdock MARINE...Sarment Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea www.twitter.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea