Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA
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892 FXUS66 KMTR 190943 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 243 AM PDT Thu Sep 19 2024 ...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 239 AM PDT Thu Sep 19 2024 There is a slight chance of showers and even a couple rumbles of thunder over southern Monterey County later this afternoon and early evening, with the best chances farther inland you go into higher elevations. Locations under the influence of the marine layer along the coast will be in the 60s and low 70s. Interior locations away from the marine layer will be in the 70s to low 80s. A warming trend for this weekend into the beginning of next week remains on track. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 239 AM PDT Thu Sep 19 2024 A positively tilted upper level low currently situated offshore in the vicinity of Big Sur will continue to track south along the California coastline toward Los Angeles today and eventually begin to move inland over San Diego by tomorrow afternoon and evening. The best chance for showers and/or thunderstorms will be farther inland where orographic upslope flow enhances an otherwise weak thermodynamic environment for convection. Highs today will generally be 5-10 degrees below normal, and slightly warmer tomorrow. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 239 AM PDT Thu Sep 19 2024 The upper level trough moving across our area today and tomorrow will eventually shift inland over SOCAL by tomorrow evening. Increasing H50 heights and thickness values over the weekend will result in temperatures rebounding back up above normal by the end of the weekend into the beginning of next week. A weak upper level disturbance interrupts the ridging pattern off the coast of central California by late Sunday into early Monday morning, while the northern extent of the ridging amplifies over the Pacific Northwest. The net result is warmer than normal temperatures and increasing heat risk concerns the farther inland and north you go for the beginning of next week. The warming trend may result in the need for a heat advisory for those locations as soon as Sunday, but more likely Monday and Tuesday. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1128 PM PDT Wed Sep 18 2024 IFR and MVFR CIGs build through the night last into the mid to late morning with some light rain lingering around the Monterey Bay and Central Coast. Pockets of drizzle and mist will affect the coast as well as the Monterey Bay and STS. Winds stay light to moderate through the morning. Widespread VFR returns for the TAF sites into Thursday afternoon, but status lingers on the immediate coast. Expect moderate winds to build into the afternoon and linger into the evening. Coastal cloud cover moves inland slightly early Tuesday evening, affecting both bays with IFR and MVFR CIGS becoming widespread later that night. Vicinity of SFO...MVFR CIGs build into the late night and last into the late morning with light to moderate winds. Winds increase into and become moderate in the mid afternoon. Winds will reduce slightly into Thursday evening and MVFR CIGs return in the late evening and early night. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...Lingering showers along with MVFR/IFR CIGs last through most of the thing. CIGs lower into early Thursday with mist and drizzle affecting the area. CIGs scatter and winds become more moderate into Thursday afternoon. IFR CIGs return Thursdsay evening as winds reduce. && .MARINE... (Tonight through next Tuesday) Issued at 1128 PM PDT Wed Sep 18 2024 Northwesterly breezes will be gentle to moderate, increasing to become moderate to fresh over the outer waters overnight. Seas will be moderate, building to become rough in the outer waters overnight. There`s up to a 15% chance for thunderstorms through tomorrow which could produce lightning, locally heavy rainfall, locally gusty winds, and small hail. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PDT Saturday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...JM LONG TERM....JM AVIATION...Murdock MARINE...Sarment Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea www.twitter.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea