Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA
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152 FXUS66 KMTR 171035 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 335 AM PDT Tue Sep 17 2024 ...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 215 AM PDT Tue Sep 17 2024 Pleasant day today with below normal temperatures and clear skies inland. Marine stratus keep a hold on the coastline. Another round of very light rain possible Wednesday. Warming trend on tap for the end of the week. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 215 AM PDT Tue Sep 17 2024 Not much notable change to the short term forecast over the last 24 hours. Today will be a fairly pleasant day with temps in the 60s and 70s area-wide. Nice and sunny inland, but the coastal areas will hang on to the marine stratus thanks to a reforming marine layer in the wake of the departing trough. There is a slight chance of drizzle to end the day today along coastal areas and ranges as the next upper trough approaches, bringing light rain chances Wednesday. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 215 AM PDT Tue Sep 17 2024 The system coming in Wednesday still looking weaker on the wind side. Thinking more in line with 20-25 mph gusts as the front rolls trough Tuesday afternoon, and still confined to the coast and gap areas. A bit of a better chance for thunder with the Wednesday system with increased low level moisture and slightly better cooling aloft. Still a low chance (~15%) that mainly exists over the North Bay through the mid-to-late morning. Rain amounts still look to be on the lower side, if any. Beyond Wednesday there really isn`t much noteworthy to write about. A casual warm up is on tap going into the weekend that will bring our temperatures to around seasonal normals. By the end of the weekend, there is still a good deal of disagreement in ensemble guidance regarding the strength of a possible ridge pattern. More on that in the coming days. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1129 PM PDT Mon Sep 16 2024 IFR and MVFR CIGs build through the night last into the mid to late morning for most TAF sites, but last longer for coastal areas and around the Monterey Bay. Pockets of drizzle and mist will affect the coast as well as the Bays and STS in the late night through much of the morning. Winds stay light to moderate through the morning. Widespread VFR returns for the TAF sites into Sunday afternoon, but status lingers on the immediate coast. Expect moderate winds to build into the afternoon and linger into the evening. Coastal cloud cover moves slightly early Tuesday evening, affecting SNS and MRY with IFR and MVFR CIGS becoming widespread later that night. Vicinity of SFO...IFR CIGs build into the late night and last into the late morning with some mist and pockets of fog in the area. Expect light to moderate winds overnight. CIGs erode as winds build in the late morning. Wind gusts will reduce slightly into Tuesday evening as MVFR CIGs return. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...MVFR/IFR CIGs with mist and drizzle last through the late morning. Expect visibilities to improve in the late morning as CIGs scatter and winds become more moderate. IFR CIGs return early Tuesday evening as winds reduce. && .MARINE... (Tonight through next Sunday) Issued at 852 PM PDT Mon Sep 16 2024 Northwest winds continue to gradually decrease overnight in the wake of yesterday`s cold front. Small craft warnings remain in effect in the NW waters mainly for wind gusts more than 45 NM from the coast. Rough seas are gradually abating in the NW waters and will continue through the next 24 hours. There is a bit of a break on Tuesday before a second cold front brings the return of strong NW winds and rough seas to the exposed coastal waters. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Behringer LONG TERM....Behringer AVIATION...Murdock MARINE...Flynn Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea www.twitter.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea