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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA
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877 FXUS66 KMTR 250548 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 1048 PM PDT Mon Jun 24 2024 ...New AVIATION, MARINE... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 142 PM PDT Mon Jun 24 2024 Temperatures near to slightly above seasonal averages with a slight cooldown midweek. Very low chance of high-based convection and associated dry lightning in the Central Coast today. The threat will shift northward into the Bay Area and North Bay tonight into Tuesday evening. && .UPDATE... Issued at 433 PM PDT Mon Jun 24 2024 Forecast update to add slight chance of thunderstorms into Tuesday for portions of our service area. Radar is showing high based shower this afternoon with one strike so far over the Santa Cruz Mountains. Models are indicating that showers will continue overnight and through much of Tuesday while slowly transiting north and east. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 142 PM PDT Mon Jun 24 2024 We continue to see a small threat (10-15%) for high-based convection across Monterey and San Benito County this afternoon and that threat will shift northward throughout the night and into tomorrow morning, potentially into the afternoon/evening as well. This is as mid-level moisture is being advected in from the south and will move across the entire Bay Area through Tuesday evening with forecast MUCAPE between 100-300 J/kg. Mid-level moisture is the most certain ingredient, with a plume of moisture migrating northwards with PWAT values up to 1-1.25". For context, if those values were reported at our upper air site at Oakland airport, those precipitable water values would be at or above the 90th percentile value for all observed soundings at this time of year. The main impact if convection does develop would be the possibility for dry lightning setting off grass and shrub fires, but this is a "low confidence- high impact" type of event at this stage. Otherwise, temperatures are expected to be near seasonal averages for coastal areas and slightly above for the interior the next several days with most areas away from the coast only getting to Minor HeatRisk. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 1243 AM PDT Mon Jun 24 2024 Wednesday sees an upper level trough move in which will push the moisture out of our region, and herald a gradual cooling trend in temperatures for the interior regions. By the end of the week, temperatures across the interior will top out at around 90 in the warmest spots, with most of the inland valleys seeing temperatures within the 80s. Towards the beginning of July, model ensemble clusters are indicating a couple of ridges approaching the West Coast, with early indications of a warming trend towards the end of the 7-day forecast. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1047 PM PDT Mon Jun 24 2024 The most important thing this TAF cycle is the low confidence-high impact possibility for high-based convection. Otherwise, currently VFR at all terminals except MRY. VFR through the TAF period at all terminals except the Monterey Bay terminals of MRY and SNS which will likely see LIFR conditions overnight. Winds become variable overnight but otherwise remain onshore through the TAF period. Vicinity of SFO...Currently VFR with northwesterly flow. VFR through the TAF period. Winds will prevail out of the west/northwest through the TAF period, becoming gusty tomorrow afternoon. Low confidence on MVFR stratus impacting the terminal in the early-to-mid morning hours. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...Currently LIFR with northerly flow at MRY and VFR with northwesterly flow at SNS. Winds become variable overnight before prevailing out of the west/northwest by mid-morning tomorrow. LIFR conditions will likely impact both terminals through the mid-morning hours. && .MARINE... (Tonight through next Sunday) Issued at 1047 PM PDT Mon Jun 24 2024 Hazardous conditions for small crafts persist across the northern coastal waters through Tuesday morning then diminish Tuesday afternoon. Fresh to strong northwest winds continue over the northern coastal waters while moderate northwest winds continue over the southern coastal waters. Wave heights will begin to diminish below 10 feet by Tuesday. Conditions hazardous to small crafts are likely to return by mid to late week with widespread fresh to strong winds expected over the coastal waters Wednesday and continuing into the weekend. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 433 PM PDT Mon Jun 24 2024 Slight chance of thunderstorms were added to the forecast through Tuesday. While these thunderstorms will be accompanied by showers, it is possible that rain will be limited. So far convection that has occurred in southern areas has shown measurable precipitation. Winds at 4 pm today have been gusting into the 20 mph range in the mountains, but single digits in the low lands. Any strikes that do occur may cause a fire start in the fine fuels. The additional concern is any strikes in the fine fuels that sleep for a few days when the onshore winds kick in. This could cause rapid growth in the grasses even with higher humidity. No strike or spark, no fire. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Tuesday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...BFG LONG TERM....RGass AVIATION...Sarment MARINE...SO Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea www.twitter.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea