Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA
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786 FXUS66 KMTR 121729 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 1029 AM PDT Wed Jun 12 2024 ...New AVIATION, MARINE... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 246 AM PDT Wed Jun 12 2024 Cooler today in response to a weak frontal passage. Quiet through the rest of the week with temperatures at or slightly above seasonal averages by the weekend. Potential for wind and increased fire danger towards Sunday and into Monday. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 246 AM PDT Wed Jun 12 2024 Temperatures today will be cooler than yesterday by a few to several degrees (especially across the interior) as a weak frontal boundary moved through the region. Thus, only Minor HeatRisk are expected across the region with isolated pockets reaching the moderate levels across the far interior. Temperatures this afternoon will range from the 60`s near the coast, 70`s to lower 80`s around the bayshore and other locations just inland, and into the upper 80`s to mid/upper 90`s across the far interior (places such as Cloverdale and Knoxville). Tonight, expecting more widespread stratus to penetrate inland as the marine layer begins to deepen. Overnight low temperatures are forecast to be in the upper 40`s across the North Bay and San Francisco Peninsula with low/mid 50`s elsewhere. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 246 AM PDT Wed Jun 12 2024 Not much to write home about as we head through the latter half of the week. Warm afternoons with temps getting down to around seasonal averages by the weekend. The next thing in the timeline that we are watching closely will be during the late weekend to early next week timeframe. Ensemble cluster analysis depicts a slight pattern change with decent confidence that will bring windy conditions to the region. It currently looks like the highest winds will be confined to the waters and coastal areas, and some over the higher terrain. With this pattern, it appears the winds would be more northwesterly, thus, holding off on any mention of "offshore" for now as the position of the trough currently does not support that. However, with grasses and fine fuels drying out rapidly, it looks like the Sunday-Monday timeframe is one to watch when it comes to elevated fire danger, particularly in the North Bay where fine fuels are drier than elsewhere around the Bay Area and Central Coast. For now, moisture recovery looks decent going into the weekend as winds should remain onshore, but we are keeping a close eye on the positioning of the trough and will update messaging accordingly. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1028 AM PDT Wed Jun 12 2024 Satellite shows the stratus continues to linger over Monterey Bay. With the slight eddy rotation, expect ceiling to linger longer into early afternoon. Otherwise, VFR for the remainder of the terminals. MVFR-IFR conditions will return for Monterey Bay late afternoon and MVFR conditions will build for North Bay late tonight, as the other remaining terminals will remain VFR. With the building marine layer, expect some scattered low clouds to reach some of the remaining terminals, but moderate confidence that conditions will remain VFR. Winds will become breezy and gusty this afternoon into the evening, before becoming light to moderate overnight. Vicinity of SFO...VFR continue with N/NW moderate winds. Onshore winds will build to breezy and gusty this afternoon up to 25 knots before returning to moderate by the night. Models hint at MVFR tonight but had low confidence to include in TAFs at this moment but included a SCT group to indicate low clouds will surround the airport. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...IFR conditions continue but ceilings are slowly lifting. Models show ceilings may not lift to VFR through the TAF period, but confidence is low so expect brief VFR near 20-21Z. MVFR will have a early return near 23Z. SW winds will continue through the TAF period with increasing speeds near the afternoon with possible gusty up to 20 knots. The SW direction winds will make it harder for ceilings to clear and will allow for a early return of MVFR-IFR conditions this afternoon into Thursday morning. && .MARINE... (Today through Monday) Issued at 1028 AM PDT Wed Jun 12 2024 Northwesterly winds continue over the northern waters through the end of the week with gale force gusts possible over the northern waters through the day today, but diminish into the late night tonight. Widespread strong northwesterly winds with gale force gusts will build in by the weekend and continue into next week. Significant wave heights diminish later today to become 10-12 feet over the outer waters, and last through the remainder of the week. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Thursday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm. Gale Warning until 3 AM PDT Thursday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10- 60 NM. Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT this afternoon for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...RGass LONG TERM....Behringer AVIATION...SO MARINE...SO Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea www.twitter.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea