408
FXUS66 KMTR 070505 AAC
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
1005 PM PDT Thu Jun 6 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 1215 PM PDT Thu Jun 6 2024

Slightly cooler temperatures today with a further cool down into
the weekend. Another warming trend on the way for early next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 919 PM PDT Thu Jun 6 2024

Today remained fairly warm inland with temperatures ranging from the
mid 80s to upper 90s to low 100s in the mountain ranges. Along the
coast, cooler temperatures prevailed with highs in the upper 50s to
mid 60s. In general, temperatures for most areas were cooler today
than they were yesterday with the end of the heat wave in sight and
the heat advisory set to expire tonight.

Beginning Friday, seasonal to slightly above average highs in the
upper 70s to mid 80s are expected inland while coastal areas
continue lingering in the upper 50s to mid 60s. Stratus is expected
to return along coastal areas tonight with elevated fog chances in
the North Bay (particularly for Santa Rosa) and within the Monterey
Bay. For early morning commuters, if you encounter fog while driving
remember to slow down and account for extra time to reach your
destination.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 1215 PM PDT Thu Jun 6 2024

Mid day temperatures running anywhere from 3 to 15 degrees cooler
than yesterday depending on location. Thanks to the upper level
ridge migrating eastward and a transient shortwave trough moving
into the West Coast. This is evident in not only the marked
decrease in temperatures, but via vertical profilers showing a
deepening of the marine layer as large scale subsidence
diminishes. Overnight lows tonight are expected to be about 1-5
degrees cooler than last night, and highs Friday look to be about
3-6 degrees cooler than today...unless you`re along the coast, in
which the only noticeable difference day-to-day will be increased
overnight cloud cover and potentially morning drizzle into the
weekend.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1215 PM PDT Thu Jun 6 2024

Things stay pretty quiet through the weekend. Onshore flow and
slightly above average temperatures prevail, and guidance hints at
a deeper upper level trough associated with the deep low in the
Gulf of Alaska sitting offshore of the West Coast into the start
of next week. As previously mentioned, this will likely just
result in increased cloud cover along the coast and AM drizzle for
coastal and high elevation locations through Sunday. By Monday,
the trough begins to break down and become replaced by another
ridge pattern, which leads to our next warm up. At the moment,
ensemble guidance is leading us to believe that it will not be
quite as warm as the last couple of days, but it is a period
we`re watching for potential highlights with Tuesday looking like
the peak based on this forecast issuance.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 947 PM PDT Thu Jun 6 2024

Poor flying conditions will continue at Monterey Bay terminals
through a good portion of the day on Friday (especially at SNS).
VFR was noted at other terminals, but MVFR ceiling/IFR visibility
is forecast to set in by sunrise Friday at just about all
terminals except SJC and LVK. The potential for MVFR has increased
at SJC, however, the chances remain under 20%. Confidence is
medium on ceiling and the visibility forecast.

Vicinity of SFO...VFR continued this evening, though by sunrise
Friday, MVFR stratus is forecast to be entrenched across the SF
Peninsula. Guidance continues to support mostly MVFR
ceilings/visibility, though an hour or two of IFR cigs/vsby cannot
be completely discounted. There still appears to be an
opportunity for a return to VFR during the afternoon with MVFR
resuming quickly near or just after sundown and continue into the
pre-dawn hours on Saturday.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO, though the onset/cessation
time for MVFR stratus may differ by up to an hour.

Monterey Bay Terminals...The poorest flying conditions are
forecast at the Monterey Bay airfields. IFR is well entrenched
across the area, though visibility has been slow to drop. Model
trends still support IFR visibility, though it appears to be a
a little too pessimistic. The current TAF set will advertise
visibility down to 1 SM. VFR is forecast to at MRY, though SNS may
remain MVFR...potentially IFR...through the entire TAF period. If
the marine layer is a bit more established at MRY, VFR may not
return in the afternoon as currently advertised.

&&

.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Wednesday)
Issued at 919 PM PDT Thu Jun 6 2024

Fog and patchy drizzle will result in reduced visibility through
the pre-dawn hours on Friday across Monterey Bay down to Point
Sur. Winds and seas will remain hazardous for areas along and
north of the Greater Farallones through Friday afternoon where
Small Craft Advisories remain in effect. Elsewhere, winds and seas
are forecast to subside below 20 knots and 10 feet, respectively.
This will be relatively short lived as 20-25 knot winds increase
during the pre-dawn hours on Sunday. Seas will respond later
Sunday morning and into the afternoon, likely necessitating
additional marine headlines.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement until midnight PDT tonight for CAZ006-
     505-509-530.

     Heat Advisory until midnight PDT tonight for CAZ503-504-506-510-
     512>516-518.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Friday for Pt Arena to Pt
     Reyes 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT Friday for Pt Arena to Pt
     Reyes 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Kennedy
SHORT TERM...Behringer
LONG TERM....Behringer
AVIATION...Bain
MARINE...Bain

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