Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA
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154 FXUS66 KMTR 091732 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 1032 AM PDT Sun Jun 9 2024 ...New AVIATION, MARINE... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 306 AM PDT Sun Jun 9 2024 Inland high temperatures reach into the 80s today with 70s closer to the SF Bay with high clouds present as a weak trough moves through our region. Beginning tomorrow, high pressure resumes, leading into our next warmup. The warmest day will be Tuesday, with Moderate HeatRisk expected for inland regions, and Minor everywhere else. High temperatures dip just a few degrees Wednesday, but will cool most significantly Thursday as troughing resumes. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 306 AM PDT Sun Jun 9 2024 At this moment, its a quiet night, with satellite showing passing high clouds moving through the region as a weak trough moves through. Very Little stratus is to be found along the coast, having been mixed out. Temperatures along the coast and bay where stratus was present yesterday are generally 1-2 degrees cooler now than they were the same time last night, likely due to greater radiative cooling ability now that the "blanket" of stratus has been eroded. Looking forwards to the the day today, high temperatures will be in the mid to low 80s for inland areas, with low to mid 70s expected closer to the SF Bay. Along the coastline, high temps will be in the upper 50s to low 60s. Temperatures will generally be just a few degrees lower than normal for bay and coastal areas today, with inland areas seeing temperatures perhaps just 1 or 2 degrees below normal. The one exception appears to be the far northern portions of Sonoma and Napa counties where the warmest temperatures will be found; here temperatures will be about 3-5 degrees above normal. The aforementioned upper level trough will also help create breezier conditions in the afternoon once more today, largely in the Salinas valley and the East Bay counties bordering the delta region. Wind gusts towards the 25-30 mph mark in these favored areas are possible, but then ease into the nighttime. In short, its a lovely June weekend. Get out and enjoy it before our next heat wave begins Monday! && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Saturday) Issued at 306 AM PDT Sun Jun 9 2024 Starting Monday, our visiting upper level trough begins to be cut off, eventually forming a cut-off low. Without any good steering mechanism, models show this low lingering off the southern CA through at least the midweek. However, the larger focus will be the ridging that develops in its place over our region tomorrow that will bring us our next warm up. Starting Monday, high temperatures are expected to reach into the high 80s and lower 90s for inland regions, with the warmest spots achieving temperatures in the mid 90s. Tuesday, the warmest temperatures are expected with temperature increasing a few degrees more. Mid to upper 90s are expected for inland areas, as well as low 100s in the northern portions of Sonoma and Napa counties, the southern Salinas valley and San Benito county, and more generally along the easternmost portions of counties bordering the Central Valley. Warm temperatures persist into Wednesday, but begin to drop by a few degrees, with high temps largely similar to those on Monday. Coastal areas throughout this event will remain relatively cool in the mid to upper 60s, perhaps touching the lower 70s on Tuesday as onshore flow helps maintain more comfortable temperatures. As it currently stands, models continue to show light onshore flow persisting. With these warmer temperatures comes increased HeatRisk. While Monday and Wednesday see largely Minor HeatRisk for the majority of our area, Tuesday will have many inland locations achieving Moderate levels of HeatRisk while coastal areas remain in the Minor category. This moderate category indicates a level of heat that affects most individuals sensitive to heat, such as those that are ill, elderly, very young, or without shelter or a means to cool themselves such as air conditioning. As we draw nearer to this event, keep in mind that even if only Minor HeatRisk is indicated, that heat related illness and impacts can affect anyone, especially when heat is prolonged. Its never a bad idea to make sure you are staying adequately hydrated during times of warmer temperatures, taking breaks in the shade if working outdoors, and to check in on loved ones who perhaps fall into the demographics of those sensitive to heat. Additionally, if planning to visit the coast or a body of water to cool off, make sure you wear a lifejacket, swim ideally near a lifeguard, and be aware of the risks of cold water shock. Towards Thursday, high temperatures decrease and begin to cool off as troughing resumes and the cutoff low rejoins upper level flow and lifts out to our east. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1022 AM PDT Sun Jun 9 2024 Lingering low and mid level clouds as a weak upper level trough exits the area. VFR through the day today with breezy onshore flow for coastal and gap areas. Moderate confidence in return of MVFR/IFR stratus overnight by about sunset for Bay Area terminals, slightly later for North Bay. All terminals clearing to VFR by mid morning Monday. Vicinity of SFO...VFR through this afternoon with some occasional lingering low clouds. Breezy onshore W/NW flow with gusts around 25 kts this afternoon, diminishing into the evening. Moderate confidence in MVFR/IFR stratus around sunset (high confidence in cigs, lower confidence in timing). SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR through the afternoon with light onshore flow. High confidence in MVFR/IFR cigs overnight tonight and clearing to VFR once again by late Monday morning. && .MARINE... (Today through Friday) Issued at 1022 AM PDT Sun Jun 9 2024 The gradient between subtropical high pressure in the East Pacific, and lower pressure over the western US is supporting a fresh to strong NW breeze and rough seas across the coastal waters. The overall pattern will remain fairly stable over the next week although the high pressure will meander closer to the coast at times, bringing periods of near gale force winds and very rough seas. The first push is expected mid-week, with another over the upcoming weekend. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT this evening for Mry Bay. Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Tuesday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Monday for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 AM PDT Monday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Tuesday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...AC LONG TERM....AC AVIATION...Behringer MARINE...Flynn Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea www.twitter.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea