013
FXUS66 KMTR 232017
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
117 PM PDT Sun Jun 23 2024

...New SHORT TERM...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 237 AM PDT Sun Jun 23 2024

Somewhat cooler temperatures in the interior today, continuing into
the beginning of the work week with a slight cooldown midweek. Very
low chance of elevated convection and associated dry lightning in
the southern Central Coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 115 PM PDT Sun Jun 23 2024

Stratus and/or fog has retreated to the coast as of early afternoon
with coastal areas expected to warm into the upper 50`s to 70`s.
However, inland areas will remain quite warm this afternoon and
reach 5-15 degrees above normal for this time of year, reaching into
the mid 80`s to upper 90`s with a few of the warmest interior
locations approaching 100 degrees. Only a few isolated spots across
the interior will reach Moderate HeatRisk, thus we don`t have a Heat
Advisory in effect for today.

As for high-based convection, looking less likely to see development
today as mid-upper level moisture is not sufficient enough. Looking
like the potential (10-15%) is still there for Monday evening
through Tuesday morning however, especially across the Central
Coast. Tomorrow`s high temperatures will be similar to this
afternoon (maybe a few degrees cooler) with the pattern changing
very little, other than increased moisture aloft from the south.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 237 AM PDT Sun Jun 23 2024

The mid-layer moisture continues to push through the region and will
push across the Bay Area on Tuesday. In addition to the mid-to-
upper level clouds that will typically accompany the moisture, the
chance for elevated convection mainly across the Central Coast
remains through Tuesday. Interior temperatures will cool off on
Wednesday and Thursday, with highs in the 80s to the mid 90s, as
an upper level trough comes into the West Coast and promotes
improved onshore flow. CPC outlooks continue to suggest that
temperatures above seasonal averages will continue into the first
week of July.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1043 AM PDT Sun Jun 23 2024

VFR across the board with stratus and IFR-LIFR conditions to return
overnight. Patchy fog is likely to develop across the North Bay
tonight with reduced visibilities and ceiling heights expected at
STS and APC. Moderate confidence that fog will impact STS, low to
moderate confidence that fog will impact APC. Guidance indicates
stratus may potentially reach SFO and OAK overnight but confidence
is low to moderate. Marine layer depth should remain similar to last
night which did not see stratus reach SFO or OAK. Current thinking
is that forecast RH values will be high enough to support scattered
low level clouds with stratus being confined closer to the
coastline. Onshore winds last through the TAF period with winds
becoming more moderate during the day before weakening and becoming
light overnight.

Vicinity of SFO...VFR with low confidence that MVFR-IFR CIGs will
develop overnight. Guidance was split on if CIGs will reach SFO
overnight with NBM and GLAMP taking the most progressive stance on
widespread stratus cover. Leaning towards stratus staying confined
closer to the coast due to a fairly compressed marine layer but
forecast RH values support scattered low level clouds overnight.
Onshore flow prevails through the TAF period with winds out of the
west and northwest expected. Winds becoming more moderate during the
day before weakening overnight.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR becoming IFR-LIFR overnight. Onshore
flow prevails through the TAF period with moderate winds during the
day becoming light overnight. Stratus is expected to return tonight
by the late evening at MRY and overnight at SNS. Confidence is
slightly lower on the timing of stratus arrival. Guidance indicated
a wide time range between 04Z to 08Z for stratus to arrive at MRY
and a slightly shorter time frame for stratus arrival at SNS between
08Z to 11Z.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 902 AM PDT Sun Jun 23 2024

Hazardous conditions for small crafts persist across the northern
coastal waters through the early work week. Strong northwest to
northerly winds continue over the northern coastal outer waters.
Fresh gusts remain possible over the southern outer waters and
portions of the northern interior coastal waters. Winds will
strengthen over the northern coastal waters today with strong to
near gale force gusts possible through Monday morning. Significant
wave heights over the northern waters will gradually build to
10-11 feet Sunday into Monday before beginning to diminish
Tuesday.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Pt Arena to
     Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-SF Bay N of Bay Bridge.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Tuesday for Pt Arena to Pt
     Reyes 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RGass
LONG TERM....DialH
AVIATION...Kennedy
MARINE...Kennedy

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