506
FXUS63 KOAX 260718
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
218 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Moderate flood stage is ongoing or expected to begin along the
  Missouri River the next day or two. It`s forecast to last into
  early next week for areas south of Omaha. See the hydrology
  section for more details.

- Another storm system Thursday into Friday will bring several
  rounds of thunderstorms, some of which may be strong, and
  heavy rain to the forecast area.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 217 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

Busy night at OAX continues with Tuesday eve`s severe weather
seemingly making the most of the extremely unstable airmass in
place earlier today. As of 2:15 AM, what may be the last of the
warnings are lit up along the KS state line. Upscale growth has
left damaging wind gust the primary threat as the storms
quickly push southeast. Expect to see the last of the convection
leave the area by about 3am.

In the system`s wake, drier conditions are anticipated both in
the form of clearing skies and slipping dewpoints. High
temperatures are forecast to peak in the mid to upper-80s and
close to seasonal norms. This represents a drop of 5-15 degrees
from Tuesday. The day should be rather pleasant considering
what page of the calendar is showing. Northerly winds 5-15 mph
will slowly veer with southerly return flow developing by early
Thursday morning. High temperatures will be encumbered by broken
to overcast skies in response to the approach of the next
shortwave. Scattered showers are possible through the day with
the passage of the warm front. What a day! Highs will peak near
80! Few will be disappointed.

Severe weather may develop by Thursday night. Convection north
and west of here is expected to grow upscale and work southeast
through central or perhaps eastern Nebraska aided by the summer
LLJ. Best chance of severe weather will wait for this MCS`s
arrival after midnight.

Friday will bring the attendant cold front through the area
after seeing southerly winds drive dewpoints back above 70.
Highs may sneak into the low 90s for areas south of I-80 before
the frontal passage. If the front passes early enough, it`ll
leave the best PoPs/severe threat southeast of this CWA. Few
will be disappointed.

Two more cooler but sunny days coincide with a weekend sure to
be booked with plenty of outdoor activities. Highs on Saturday
and Sunday are expected to hit a zenith just on either side of
80F. Few will be disappointed.

The polar jet`s amplified pattern should leave plenty of
opportunities to see summer convection next week with Monday
night currently showing the greatest promise as a negatively
titled trof ejects from the PNW. Expect confidence in timing and
placement to grow as we approach the weekend.

Appreciate the cooler weather forecast over the next few days as
CPC suggests the first two weeks of July lean warmer than
normal as does July as a whole and the remainder of summer.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1124 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

Severe thunderstorms continue across the area overnight,
generally moving southeast. Believe OFK is out of the woods for
now. OMA has seen regular redevelopment throughout the evening.
This may continue through about 2am before storms push
southeast. Have added the storms for the same period at LNK as
latest guidance has storms clipping the aerodrome there.

Primary concern with these storms will be an increasing damaging
wind threat with gusts up to 70mph possible as storms grow into
a cluster and speed up as they push southeast.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 215 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

.The Little Sioux River...

Minor flood stage was reached on the Little Sioux at the Turin
gauge just after 7 PM Monday evening with a crest on Tuesday
afternoon just above 27 feet. A levee breach upstream has left
the crest in minor flooding territory. Current forecasts have
the Little Sioux at Turin dropping below flood stage by Thursday
afternoon.

.The Missouri River...

The Missouri River at the Decatur gage is currently reading
37.42 feet. This should be near crest as the river is expected
to remain in minor flood stage for the duration of the flooding
event which should last through the day today before ending on
Thursday. Farther south, moderate flood stage is either ongoing
or expected to begin later this week, as water levels at all
river gauges from Blair south continue to rise.

River levels at Omaha should crest Thursday evening. Current
guidance has this crest at 35.1 feet. Trends in gauge data
suggest this crest may lag a little later, potentially
featuring a slightly lower yet prolonged crest on Friday. Worth
noting: QPE over the past 12 hours has likely outpaced QPF, so
an updated river forecast may be needed later today.

The Missouri River crest will take several days to work its way
down the Nebraska-Iowa and Nebraska-Missouri border. The
Missouri River at Rulo should crest in moderate flood stage
on Sunday and drop below flood stage by next Tuesday.

Additional information can be found at water.noaa.gov

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Nicolaisen
AVIATION...Nicolaisen
HYDROLOGY...Nicolaisen