141
FXUS63 KOAX 100837 CCA
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
337 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Nice weather continues with highs in the lower 80s, light
  winds, and ample sunshine.

- There is a chance for showers Tuesday, but better chances for
  stonger storms arrive Wednesday and Thursday.

- Thursday looks to be one of the warmest days of the year, with
  heat index approaching 100 especially over southern parts of
  the area.

- A stormy mid-June weather pattern will settle in by late this
  week into next week...with several opportunities for strong to
  severe storms late this week into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 332 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

Today and Tomorrow:

Water vapor imagery this morning features a mid-level ridge building
eastward from the High Plains while a broad trough over the eastern
third of the CONUS continues to spin eastward. At the surface, high
pressure continues to linger and influence the Central and Northern
Plains, while strung-out cold fronts extend from Texas to Georgia
and another one from Missouri to Pennsylvania. With the continued
influence of surface high pressure, expect another wonderful day
outside with lower relative humidity due to the lack of moisture
advection and light easterly/southeasterly winds. Highs this
afternoon are expected to climb to right around if not a hair warmer
than 80 degrees, with some high clouds blowing off from activity
across the High Plains. Convection from western South Dakota and
Nebraska will initiate during the afternoon and waft towards eastern
Nebraska and approach northeast Nebraska around 10 PM to midnight.
Increasing stability and decreasing shear that will be in place
locally will likely result in any convection falling apart.

For Tuesday, we`ll see a marked increase in high temperatures
brought to the area by mostly sunny skies and minor low-level
ridging. We`ll see temperatures top out in the mid-to-upper 80s
with with very slight rain chances from the aforementioned and
fallen-apart convection the moves through similar to a frontal
boundary.

Wednesday and Thursday:

Going into the middle of the week, we`ll feel the influence of the
eastward-building low-level thermal ridge and see highs continue to
climb. Afternoon high temperatures are expected to range from 91 to
96 degrees, with the main saving grace being that we don`t have very
humid conditions to crank up heat indices. By the afternoon/early
evening, we`ll have a weak cold front and local surface pressure
minimum working into northeast Nebraska and Iowa, providing a source
of convergence that will try to initiate convection. With most of
the mid-level support and stronger convergence associated with the
surface low being generally north of the forecast area, the best
chances for strong to severe storms will stay north but it`ll be
prudent to monitor for chances in the evolution of the main forcing
mechanisms in future model runs. Continued warm weather is on tap
for Thursday, with the low-level thermal fields reach their peak,
and result in highs in the upper 90s to near 100 degrees in
southeast Nebraska. Additional chances for storms appear Thursday
evening as a surface front pushes through from the north and high
pressure moves in behind it. Heightened ambient shear will mean
continued chances for strong-to-severe storms, with the peak
potential being at the SD/NE/IA state lines.

Friday and Beyond:

By the time the weekend approaches we`ll see brief relief from the
warmth with a dip back into the 80s area-wide Friday. This reprieve
won`t last long, as we are expected to be thrust back into the 90s
temperature-wise with continued daily chances for showers and
storms. Early signals for what storms could look like would be a
nocturnal MCS that moves from west-to-east Friday night with a
primary wind threat. Leftover shower storm activity will linger into
early Saturday while Sunday`s rain chances are largely powered by
low-level warm air advection while highs reach 90-95 degrees.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1143 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

VFR conditions through the period with winds less than 12 knots.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Petersen
AVIATION...DeWald