423
FXUS63 KOAX 141644
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1144 AM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Some patchy fog is possible this morning, but should dissipate
  quickly after sunrise.

- Above-normal temperatures expected to persist through at least
  next week with highs in the 80s.

- Most likely dry through Monday, then periodic chances for
  thunderstorms starting Monday night. Highest chances appear to
  be Tuesday night into Wednesday and Friday into Saturday
  (40-60%).

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 251 AM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024

Pretty quiet across the area early this morning with the large
scale pattern being fairly similar to that of 24 hours ago.
Remnants of Hurricane Francine continued to spin over the
southeastern United States with associated clouds (but no
precip) clipping portions of far southeast NE into IA. Broad
upper level troughing remained in place over the western CONUS
while a cutoff low was pushing north through Saskatchewan. At
the surface, a cold front attendant to the low stretched south-
southwest through the Dakotas and into NE. Radar showed a few
showers just ahead of this front up in ND and MN, but farther
south returns were very spotty and light, and likely not enough
to reach the ground, so really we weren`t seeing much more than
some increased cloud cover in portions of northeast NE. The main
thing to keep an eye on this morning will be stratus and
potential fog development across a good chunk of the area as
southeasterly surface flow continues to usher in a decent slug
of moisture. Currently think fog will remain somewhat patchy
with guidance showing winds just above the surface will be
around 15-20 kts. In addition, the stratus should help keep some
areas a few degrees above the dewpoint. Otherwise expect a
pretty nice and quiet Saturday with highs in the upper 70s to
mid 80s. A few showers and storms are expected to develop in
vicinity of the front late this afternoon/this evening, but
guidance is in good agreement that those will stay to our west.

Upper level ridging will start to build over the area Sunday
with highs slated to climb into the mid 80s to lower 90s. Once
again expect a dry day, but guidance suggests some spotty shower
and storm development during the evening and overnight as
moisture transport points near or possibly into the forecast
area. Highest chances currently look to remain to our west and
east, but still around a 10% chance we see a little something in
our area (if it happens, it likely won`t amount to much).
Monday and Monday night look similar though perhaps a few
degrees cooler with some lingering cloud cover.

Meanwhile, another large scale upper level trough will be
digging into the western CONUS with the axis approaching the
Rockies by Tuesday afternoon/evening. A surface cold front looks
to push into at least western NE around this timeframe while
some weak shortwave energy ejects out of the main trough Tuesday
night into Wednesday, bringing our next chances for precip.
While it doesn`t look like a particularly organized system, it
is probably our next chance for at least a couple tenths of an
inch of rain, with 40-60% rain chances across the area.
Additional bits of shortwave energy will push through at times
heading into Thursday and Friday morning, before a stronger
system looks to push through Friday afternoon into Saturday.
That one will probably be our best chance for widespread precip
and while chances currently top out around 50-60%, those will
likely be higher once we get a better handle on exact timing.
Also should mention some of the GEFS-based severe weather
probability products show at least some low end potential
(around 5%) Wednesday through Friday. Plenty of time to work out
the details, but overall looking like a more active pattern by
mid to late next week. Otherwise expect continued highs in the
80s, though if a day or 2 have more precip, we could be a bit
cooler.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1143 AM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024

Patchy fog earlier this morning has lifted into a broken stratus
deck around 1500-2500 feet AGL. This will continue to slowly
lift through early this afternoon, with VFR conditions expected
by around 19Z. Winds remain out of the southeast through the TAF
period.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CA
AVIATION...McCoy