Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE
Versions:
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440 FNUS73 KOAX 170957 FWSOAX Spot Forecast for Rice Farm GS Rx Fire 2024...Iowa DNR National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 457 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024 Forecast is based on ignition time of 1100 CDT on September 17. If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather Service. .DISCUSSION... Another day of quick southerly winds are forecast with gusts peaking generally near 30mph. Cloud cover will be slowest to clear in western Iowa, leaving high temps peaking in the mid-80s there when parts of Nebraska will peak in the low 90s. High dewpoints leave RH values slipping only into the 40s as a worst case scenario. Scattered showers and thunderstorms may be most numerous mid-morning before quickly decreasing in coverage after 11am. Strongest Possible Wind Speeds on Day of Burn: 29 mph Lowest Possible Relative Humidity on Day of Burn: 46% of winds end up being a bit stronger. .REST OF TODAY... Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (60-70 percent) then becoming sunny (5-15 percent). Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms late in the morning. Max temperature.....Around 85. Min humidity........52 percent. Eye level winds.....South winds 8 to 9 mph. Surface winds (mph).South winds 14 to 15 mph. Wind (20 ft)........South winds 12 to 13 mph. Gusty and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms late in the morning. Mixing height.......3400 ft AGL. Transport winds.....South 18 to 25 mph. Smoke dispersal.....Fair (15800 knot-ft) early in the morning increasing to excellent (75700 knot-ft) in the afternoon. GFDI................1. Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large plume dominated fire growth. TIME (CDT) 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM Sky (%).........82 79 56 52 51 11 6 Weather cov.....SCH SCH SCH Weather type....RW RW RW Tstm cov........SCH SCH SCH Temp............74 76 78 81 83 85 84 RH..............77 71 66 60 54 52 53 20 FT wind dir..S S S S S S S 20 FT wind spd..11 11 11 12 12 12 12 20 FT wind gust.16 16 16 17 17 17 17 Eye lvl wnd dir.S S S S S S S Eye lvl wnd spd.8 8 8 9 9 9 9 Eye lvl wnd gst.12 12 12 13 13 13 13 Surface wnd dir.S S S S S S S Surface wnd spd.14 14 14 15 15 15 15 Surface wnd gst.20 20 20 21 21 21 21 Mix hgt (kft)...1.2 1.4 1.9 2.3 2.8 3.4 3.3 Transp wind dir.S S S S S S S Transp wind spd.18 20 20 23 24 25 24 GFDI............0 0 1 1 1 1 1 Haines index....4 4 5 5 5 5 5 SDspl kt-ft/100016 23 32 50 68 76 64 .TONIGHT... Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (20-30 percent) then becoming mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Min temperature.....Around 69. Max humidity........79 percent. Eye level winds.....South winds around 8 mph. Gusts up to 23 mph in the late evening and overnight. Surface winds (mph).South winds 13 to 14 mph. Gusts up to 23 mph in the late evening and overnight. Wind (20 ft)........South winds around 12 mph. Gusts up to 23 mph in the late evening and overnight. Mixing height.......300 ft AGL. Transport winds.....South 16 to 23 mph. Smoke dispersal.....Good (42500 knot-ft) early in the evening decreasing to poor (3200 knot-ft) late in the night. GFDI................1. Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large plume dominated fire growth. TIME (CDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM Sky (%).........3 1 6 21 40 64 Weather cov..... Weather type....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE Tstm cov........ Temp............84 79 77 75 73 72 RH..............53 61 61 63 68 70 20 ft wind......S 11 SE 10 S 11 S 10 S 10 S 10 20 ft wind gust.16 14 18 18 18 18 Eye level wind..S 8 SE 8 S 8 S 8 S 8 S 8 Eye lvl wnd gst.12 10 14 13 13 13 Surface wind....S 14 SE 13 S 14 S 13 S 13 S 13 Surface wnd gst.20 17 23 22 22 22 Mix hgt (ft)....2800 300 300 300 300 400 Transport wind..S 23 S 18 S 21 S 20 S 20 S 17 GFDI............1 0 1 1 0 0 Haines index....5 4 4 4 4 4 SDspl kt-ft/100043 13 5 4 5 6 .WEDNESDAY... Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent) then becoming mostly sunny (40-50 percent). Slight chance of thunderstorms in the morning. Chance of showers through the day. Chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. Max temperature.....Around 83. Min humidity........56 percent. Eye level winds.....South winds 6 to 8 mph with gusts to around 14 mph. Surface winds (mph).South winds 10 to 14 mph with gusts to around 24 mph. Wind (20 ft)........South winds 9 to 12 mph with gusts to around 19 mph. Gusty and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms in the morning. Gusty and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms in the afternoon. Mixing height.......4700 ft AGL. Transport winds.....South 16 to 24 mph. Smoke dispersal.....Poor (3500 knot-ft) early in the morning increasing to excellent (99200 knot-ft) in the afternoon. GFDI................1. Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. TIME (CDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM Sky (%).........67 73 77 89 77 79 76 64 55 48 45 44 Weather cov.....SCH SCH SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC Weather type....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW Tstm cov........ SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC Temp............71 71 70 71 74 76 78 80 82 83 83 82 RH..............74 74 79 78 74 70 65 62 59 57 57 56 20 FT wind dir..S S S S S S S S S S S S 20 FT wind spd..9 8 9 10 10 10 10 10 10 11 11 10 20 FT wind gust.17 16 17 18 18 18 18 18 18 19 19 18 Eye lvl wnd dir.S S S S S S S S S S S S Eye lvl wnd spd.7 6 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 Eye lvl wnd gst.13 12 13 13 13 13 13 13 14 14 14 14 Surface wnd dir.S S S S S S S S S S S S Surface wnd spd.11 10 11 13 13 13 13 13 13 14 14 13 Surface wnd gst.21 20 21 22 22 22 22 22 23 24 24 23 Mix hgt (kft)...0.3 0.3 0.4 1.0 1.4 2.0 2.1 2.7 3.9 4.6 4.7 3.9 Transp wind dir.S S S S S S S S S S S S Transp wind spd.16 16 16 17 17 18 20 20 23 24 24 23 GFDI............0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 Haines index....4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 SDspl kt-ft/10004 4 8 14 21 27 35 46 69 91 99 79 .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .THURSDAY... Partly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the mid 60s. Highs in the upper 80s. South winds around 9 mph. .FRIDAY... Mostly clear. Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows around 60. Highs in the mid 80s. West winds around 5 mph. .SATURDAY... Showers likely and chance of thunderstorms. Lows in the mid 60s. Highs in the mid 70s. South winds around 6 mph. $$ Forecaster...Nicolaisen Requested by...Jeff Seago Type of request...PRESCRIBED .TAG 2422612.0/OAX .DELDT 09/17/24 .FormatterVersion 2.0.0 .EMAIL jeffrey.seago@dnr.iowa.gov