002
FXUS64 KOHX 210619
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
119 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 1245 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024

After a hot day on Friday temperatures are mild for mid September
with 60s and even a couple stations still in the 70s at this hour.
Some patchy fog will be possible near dawn again this morning. The
ridge is in charge this weekend with another hot and dry day in
store today. Highs will be very similar to yesterday with many of
us topping out in the lower to mid 90s. Sunday will be another hot
one but maybe a couple degrees cooler as the ridge begins to
flatten out. With the ridging influences being slightly less
pronounced and increasing humidity, an isolated storm near the
TN/KY border or along the Tennessee River cannot be completely
ruled out.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday Night through next Saturday)
Issued at 1245 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024

Rain chances will increase Monday and Tuesday as a shortwave
ejects out of the central plains towards the Midwest. A couple
scattered storms will be possible on Monday but the better rain
chances will be Tuesday as a weak cold front traverses our area.
QPF with this front looks underwhelming given our ongoing drought.
Generally speaking, QPF will be 0.25" or less. Temperatures will
fall back closer to normal for late September behind the front
with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s and lows falling into the
50s and 60s. Behind the early week shortwave, models diverge
regarding the upper level flow with some digging a deeper trough
through the area midweek (mainly GEFS members) while more ENS
members want to cut off the energy well west of our area. The
first solution would bring some more rain chances to the area
while the second solution would see a return of dry conditions.
For now, slight chance PoPs will be carried until some more
agreement is seen.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1236 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024

At BNA...VFR conditions expected over the next 24 hours. Calm
winds will give way to light west/southwest winds during the
afternoon. Only cloud cover will be high level cirrus moving in
from the northwest.

For all other TAF sites...VFR conditions are expected to prevail
over the next 24 hours. The one potential issue will be fog this
morning, but based on current trends and temp/dewpoint spreads,
only felt confident enough to put fog in the TAF for KSRB. Issued
a TAF with MVFR vis at KSRB, and VFR at all other sites. Will be
monitoring for fog development. Calm winds overnight will give way
to light west/southwest winds by late morning into the afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      94  71  93  72 /  10  10  10  10
Clarksville    92  70  91  69 /  20  10  20  20
Crossville     88  63  88  63 /  10   0  10  10
Columbia       93  69  93  68 /  10  10  10  10
Cookeville     89  66  89  67 /  10  10  10  10
Jamestown      87  65  87  66 /  10   0  20  10
Lawrenceburg   93  68  92  67 /  10  10  10  10
Murfreesboro   94  69  93  69 /  10  10  10  10
Waverly        91  69  91  69 /  10  10  20  20

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Reagan
LONG TERM....Reagan
AVIATION.....Husted