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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
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432 FXUS64 KOHX 240153 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 853 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 839 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 The cold front has cleared Nashville and is now located along the Plateau where most of our current storm activity is. Mid- level lapse rates never got too steep today, so most storms stayed pretty shallow. That continues to be the case with the storms currently on radar. Looking at the latest meso data around the area, instability continues to fall behind the cold front. A few smaller thunderstorms have popped up across the west that are using the last bit of instability the environment has to offer. Do not expect those to be of much consequence outside of producing heavy rain and lightning. As a more stable airmass builds in over the next few hours, clouds will start to clear and temperatures are expected to drop into the low 70s overnight. With the recent rain and clearing skies tonight, patchy dense fog appears likely overnight as we approach daybreak, especially for those along the Plateau. High pressure will return to the area tomorrow, meaning another hot day is in store with highs near 90. Thankfully, dew point temperatures aren`t expected to be as high as they have been, thus the "feel like" temperature will be very close to the actual temperature tomorrow - 90. Hot and dry weather will stick around with us through Tuesday. && .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Sunday Night) Issued at 1120 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 Radar late this morning shows a weakening line of light rain showers moving southeastward across northern parts of the midstate. This activity should continue to weaken over the next couple of hours as it moves further southeast. However, additional showers and thunderstorms are expected to form along any remnant outflow from this activity, as well as along and ahead of a cold front currently approaching the Ohio River, based on the latest HRRR model runs. Forecast soundings show MLCAPE peaking in the 1500-2000 J/Kg range with fairly steep low level lapse rates and PWATs rising to around the 2 inch mark. These parameters are favorable for a few storms to produce wet microbursts with potential of damaging winds and maybe some small hail. However, mid level lapse rates will be very weak around 5.5 C/km or less with deep layer shear also weak at 25 knots, which should help keep the strong to severe storm threat isolated. SPC continues to highlight our area in a marginal risk for severe storms today which seems reasonable. Cloud cover and precip will keep temps down a degree or two from yesterday`s readings, especially across our northwest counties, but it will still get quite hot with highs reaching around 90 on the Plateau and mid to upper 90s elsewhere. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through next Sunday) Issued at 1120 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 Front will pass through the area tonight with a drier and slightly cooler airmass filtering in behind the boundary for Monday, with highs a couple degrees lower than today. However, we will heat right back up on Tuesday as upper ridging builds back in aloft, with highs in the 90s anticipated for nearly everyone once again. A much stronger upper level trough and associated cold front is shown by guidance to dig southward out of the Great Lakes on Wednesday into Wednesday night, bringing our best chance for showers and storms over the next week with high chance to likely pops. Forecast soundings for Wednesday show weak MLCAPE for late June between 1000-1500 J/Kg, but also show a bit stronger deep layer shear and slightly steeper lapse rates than we will see today, along with considerable dry air aloft and DCAPE over 1000 J/Kg. Therefore, a few strong to severe storms with damaging microbursts winds and small hail appear possible once again, and I`d expect SPC to highlight our area in marginal risk on their new Day 3 outlook tonight. After the wet Wednesday, we dry out again for Thursday but will also see much cooler temperatures in the wake of the front pushing through with highs only in the mid 80s to low 90s. Unfortunately, this "cooldown" will be short-lived as an H5 ridge strengthens significantly across the southern Plains into the Southeast with heights rising to around 597dm. This will cause temps to soar back into the mid to upper 90s west of the Plateau, and a few locations could hit the 100 degree mark. 12Z guidance differs next weekend on timing and how far south a front makes it into our area, but due to the strength of the upper ridge forecast it will likely struggle to make much headway into the midstate. Nevertheless, pops will be on the increase by late weekend with temperatures potentially "cooling" back down somewhat again. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 610 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 A few remaining showers and thunderstorms will move east of I-65 through 03Z. These will mainly affect KSRB and KCSV. The gusty afternoon winds will subside and turn more northerly overnight as an upper level cold front passes through middle TN. VFR conditions expected outside of any brief thunderstorms at SRB and CSV. With winds going close to calm overnight there could be some patchy river fog...especially over the Plateau. VFR skies tomorrow with northerly winds 10 kts or less. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 72 92 70 98 / 20 0 0 0 Clarksville 69 91 69 96 / 10 0 0 10 Crossville 66 84 59 89 / 70 0 0 0 Columbia 70 94 67 98 / 20 0 0 0 Cookeville 67 85 63 91 / 60 0 0 0 Jamestown 67 83 61 90 / 60 0 0 0 Lawrenceburg 69 92 66 96 / 30 0 0 0 Murfreesboro 70 92 66 97 / 40 0 0 0 Waverly 69 92 69 97 / 10 0 0 0 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE.......Baggett SHORT TERM...Shamburger LONG TERM....Shamburger AVIATION.....12