218
FXUS64 KOHX 161204
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
704 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 142 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

Mostly clear and calm conditions once again this morning. It`s on
the warm side with temperatures in the 70s, upper 60s Plateau. The
upper level high was directly over our area yesterday. It is now
expected to move to our east and strengthen. Meanwhile, a sfc high
is anchored off of the New England coast. This will allow a more
uniform southerly flow to return today with the humidity levels
inching upward. Along with the humidity, the temperatures will climb
a degree or two warmer as well. This is being aided by that
aforementioned upper high which is actually going to strengthen with
time. Now, yesterday, both the high temp and the highest hourly heat
index hit 96F. That 96F temp ended up pairing with dewpoints near
60F. Thus, the HI effect was neutral.

Now for today, were going to see 97F for a high at BNA and those
dewpoints will be into the mid 60s. So, we are going to look at heat
index values in the 99F to 103F. This should also suffice for the
remainder of our area, a little cooler along the Plateau of course.

Now as far as precipitation goes, I must note the following...it is
very very important to discuss pops, especially on a day like today.
Otherwise, with the increase in humidity, our afternoon temperatures
will be approaching the convective level. Lift looks isolated to
scattered and somewhat disorganized. Nevertheless, look for
isolated to scattered convection to develop in the late
afternoon, which will move slowly northward. The activity does not
look strong or severe. The cells will die toward evening. As far
as those very very important pops go, they should chime in at
around 30-40 percent. Some areas could see up a half inch of rain
or so.

On Monday, there is a little pattern difference although as the
high over the carolinas strengthens further and could perhaps
morph the pattern into a ring of fire with perhaps a little more
activity to our west, and less to the east.

On Tuesday we will start to see some westward ridge extension and
pops will lower considerably to just minimal levels at best.

For the near term temps, the hottest day look like today with upper
90s for many areas. Then, mid 90s to follow. Some models do elude
toward an increase in high cloudiness by Tuesday. Thus, the NBM
tries to show some lower 90s for highs. At any rate, still hot.
Overnight lows look like lower to mid 70s, upper 60s along the
Plat.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday Night through next Sunday)
Issued at 142 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

In the extended forecast, that upper high is expected to strengthen
over the mid Atlantic with plenty of westward extension. Subsidence
and the degree of anti cyclonic flow will keep us precip free
through mid week. Following this, models diverge with the potential
for an easterly wave that could move into the Gulf. NHC/NBM and the
Euro all delay this feature more toward next weekend. Perhaps some
low pops will emerge late in the extended.

For those extended temps, the heat continues. NBE numbers show mid
to upper 90s with dewpoints thankfully holding in the 60s. Lows 70-
75F.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 653 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

The majority of the period should be VFR with light winds and
mostly clear skies. This afternoon some scattered storms may
develop, which could produce vicinity storms at terminals east of
CKV. Any storms should die down by 02Z and leave conditions quiet
overnight tonight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      97  74  95  74 /  40  20  20  10
Clarksville    95  72  92  73 /  20  20  30  10
Crossville     89  68  88  68 /  40  20  20  10
Columbia       96  72  93  73 /  30  10  20  10
Cookeville     91  71  91  72 /  40  20  20  10
Jamestown      91  70  89  70 /  30  20  20  10
Lawrenceburg   95  72  92  73 /  30  10  20  10
Murfreesboro   96  72  95  74 /  40  20  20  10
Waverly        96  73  92  73 /  20  10  30  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....21
AVIATION.....Whitehead