Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
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342 FXUS64 KOHX 211632 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 1132 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Saturday) Issued at 1108 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024 Another hot and humid summer day across the midstate today with current temperatures in the mid 80s to low 90s and dewpoints in the mid 60s to low 70s. Anticipate highs to reach the upper 80s to around 90 on the Plateau this afternoon with mid to upper 90s elsewhere. HRRR has been consistently showing a few popup showers or storms during the afternoon, so I added a very slight chance pop for that potential. Tomorrow looks even hotter as the upper ridge remains in place and 850mb temps heat up a tad, so expect highs to be a degree or two above today`s readings. It`s possible Nashville could squeak up to the 100 degree mark during the afternoon, but right now I`m forecasting it to stay just below. A few areas could also reach our Heat Advisory criteria of 105+ heat index values, but with most areas staying below that I`m not planning on an advisory at this time. Also not anticipating any popups tomorrow due to the strength of the upper ridge, but as always in our summertime regime one or two could occur. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday Night through next Friday) Issued at 1108 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024 On Sunday, a weak frontal boundary will sink down from the north, bringing some widely scattered showers and storms by late afternoon and especially Sunday evening/night. Models accordingly cool down highs for Sunday, but with the late day frontal arrival they are likely overdoing things and temps will likely be similar to Saturday. Forecast soundings aren`t impressive with only weak shear and CAPE for late Sunday, but a strong storm or two could occur mainly with gusty winds. Drier airmass moves in behind the front on Monday into Tuesday, but 850mb temps actually warm up into the 21-24C range - so it highs will actually go up across Middle Tennessee with a better likelihood for a few areas to hit the 100 degree mark. Low level moisture begins returning from the west on Tuesday so precip chances will be on the rise Wednesday into Thursday while temperatures decline thanks to clouds/precip. Guidance shows a more substantial cold front moving through the region by late week, with a return to dry conditions and at least somewhat of a "cooldown" into the mid 80s to low 90s. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 628 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024 A surface ridge continues to extend through Middle Tennessee while an upper high circulates directly overhead. TAFs are VFR. Expect light/calm winds thru the TAF period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 97 74 99 74 / 0 0 10 0 Clarksville 95 72 96 73 / 0 0 0 10 Crossville 88 67 89 68 / 0 0 10 0 Columbia 94 72 96 71 / 0 10 0 0 Cookeville 90 69 91 71 / 0 0 10 0 Jamestown 89 68 90 70 / 0 0 10 0 Lawrenceburg 93 71 95 71 / 0 0 10 0 Murfreesboro 95 72 97 72 / 0 0 10 0 Waverly 93 72 95 73 / 0 0 0 10 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Shamburger LONG TERM....Shamburger AVIATION.....Rose