618
FXUS64 KOHX 270659
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
159 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 159 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024

Latest regional radar mosiac imagery showing most convection has
pushed east of mid state region. Surface cold front will push
through mid state region as these early morning hours progress.
Enough post frontal moisture will be around today across mainly
southern and eastern areas to support a continued chance of
showers and thunderstorm through afternoon hours today. With
surface high pressure influences moving out of upper Midwest
into Great Lakes Region today providing a northerly wind
component, less humid conditions will certainly prevail with highs
around or maybe even a degree or two below seasonal normals. After
some patchy fog southern and eastern areas tonight as a decreasing
cloudiness trend continues, with lows around seasonal normal
values, highs once again will be seasonally warm on Friday. Highs
will range from upper 80s to lower 90s, mid 80s higher elevations
of Cumberland Plateau Region. After dry conditions prevail tonight
through Friday morning, as a more zonal upper level flow pattern
replaces upper level ridging influences that build across our
area as today progresses and into tonight, a weak embedded
shortwave will move across mid state region Friday afternoon
resulting in isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms being
possible mainly across southern and eastern locations during these
Friday afternoon hours. With now a more southerly flow pattern
developing as surface high pressure influences to our north shift
into New England Region, some locations west of Cumberland Plateau
Region may experience heat index values up to around 105 degrees.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday Night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 159 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024

Look for shower and thunderstorm chances to once again really pick
up especially across central and eastern locations by Saturday
afternoon as a vast warm sector develops across much of southern
CONUS in relationship to a synoptical frontal system draped to
the north. A quasi southwesterly flow pattern aloft develops as
Saturday progresses also, with a stronger embedded shortwave
passage expected across mid state region as Saturday afternoon
progresses. Still looks like multiple locations west of Cumberland
Plateau Region will be within heat advisory thresholds, with heat
index values as high as around 110 degrees across portions of TN
River Valley Region as the heat really turns back on with highs on
Saturday ranging in the mid 90s, mid 80s higher elevations of
Cumberland Plateau Region to lower 90s for locations just west of
this area. Another surface cold front will try to push through
mid state region as Saturday Night into Sunday progresses aided by
a 1024mb surface high pressure apex across Upper Midwest. Look
for upper level flow to developing ridging characteristics, but
enough low level moisture will continue to work under it so this
will be a quite "Dirty Ridge Pattern" across our area on Sunday
with slightly cooler temperatures with scattered to numerous
showers and thunderstorms possible. Those upper level ridging
influences will strengthen enough across mid state region as first
part of next work week progresses to call a "strike three and your
out" on any significant lower level atmospheric moisture pooling
potential. However, July will come in like a "Roaring Lion" as it
comes to seasonally warm temperatures, with highs back in the mid
to even upper 90s on Tuesday, and when low level atmospheric moisture
finally seeks in under these upper level ridging influences,
even though isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorm
chances will return, so will the oppressive humidity, with heat
index values west of Cumberland Plateau Region well established
once again within heat advisory thresholds with values approaching
TN River Valley Region once again around 110 degrees as at least
another day of high temperatures west of Cumberland Plateau Region
in mid to upper 90s, with upper 80s to lower 90s for locations
just west of and across Cumberland Plateau Region.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024

TAFs are going to be sloppy for several more hours as we deal with
the backside of this current system. On the whole, look for IFR
cigs for several more hours with improvement to MVFR as we near
daybreak for CKV/BNA/MQY. VFR should return to all mid-state
terminals before 16Z/Fri. Winds will be light and mostly north to
northeasterly.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      89  70  92  76 /  20   0   0   0
Clarksville    87  66  91  74 /   0   0   0   0
Crossville     82  64  86  69 /  40   0  30  20
Columbia       88  68  91  73 /  30   0  20   0
Cookeville     84  66  88  72 /  30   0  20  10
Jamestown      83  64  88  71 /  20   0  30  10
Lawrenceburg   86  68  90  72 /  40  10  20  10
Murfreesboro   89  69  92  74 /  30   0  20  10
Waverly        87  67  91  74 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JB Wright
LONG TERM....JB Wright
AVIATION.....Unger