Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
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097 FXUS64 KOHX 181714 CCA AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion...Corrected National Weather Service Nashville TN 1159 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Wednesday) Issued at 1159 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Will keep a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms for locations west of I-65 Corridor and for locations approaching TN/KY Border Region through mid afternoon hours today. Otherwise building upper level ridging influences from our east along with a continuance of southerly based low level atmospheric flow will provide for dry but seasonally warm temperatures through Wednesday afternoon. Current regional temperature trends continue to support forecasted high temperatures for afternoon hours today ranging generally upper 80s to lower 90s, mid 80s higher elevations of Cumberland Plateau Region. Lows tonight will be seasonably mild ranging generally in low to mid 70s, upper 60s to around 70 Cumberland Plateau Region. Highs on Wednesday will be like those experienced this afternoon. Prevalence of scattered to broken high level cloudiness at times will inhibit max heating potential and thus not expecting temperatures to get significantly warmer than these values despite enhancing upper level ridging influences. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday Night through next Tuesday) Issued at 1159 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Upper level ridging influences will continue to build and strengthen across our area at least through Saturday afternoon with a diffuse southerly low level atmospheric flow continuing. Dry conditions will continue to prevail. Temperatures will continue to warm, with highs in low to mid 90s on Thursday with century mark certainly not out of question for Nashville Metro Area and other locations west of Cumberland Plateau Region on Saturday. Relative humidity values during afternoon hours Thursday through Saturday will have a decreasing values trend, so not expecting heat index values to become a factor. Finally upper level ridging begins to weaken as second half of weekend into first part of next work week progresses with a more northwesterly flow pattern aloft potentially developing and ushering in upper level disturbances in flow. Another century mark day could be in store for Nashville Metro Area on Sunday, with mid to upper 90s for other locations west of Cumberland Plateau Region, lower 90s across these locations, with isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms possible. High temperatures on Monday and Tuesday west of Cumberland Plateau Region will range in low to mid 90s, around 90 Cumberland Plateau Region, with enough humidity now to support heat index values west of Cumberland Plateau Region ranging 100 to 105 degrees. Nighttime lows Sunday night through next Tuesday night will be in low to mid 70s, upper 60s to around 70 for locations just west of and across Cumberland Plateau Region. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1157 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 VFR conditions expected across middle TN at all TAF sites with southerly winds 10 kts or less. Expect SCT to BKN mid and high clouds 060 to 250. Included VCTS for CKV from 20-23Z as if anything develops the northwest would be most likely location. Confidence is quite low. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 93 74 92 72 / 10 10 0 0 Clarksville 90 72 89 69 / 30 10 0 0 Crossville 86 65 86 64 / 10 10 0 0 Columbia 91 71 90 68 / 10 10 0 0 Cookeville 88 69 88 68 / 10 10 0 0 Jamestown 87 66 88 67 / 20 10 0 0 Lawrenceburg 90 71 88 67 / 10 10 0 0 Murfreesboro 92 71 91 69 / 10 10 0 0 Waverly 90 72 88 69 / 20 10 0 0 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...JB Wright LONG TERM....JB Wright AVIATION.....12