041
FXUS64 KOHX 201139
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
639 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 132 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

There`s a few clouds roaming around out there at forecast time, but
it`s pretty quiet over all. With calm winds, some fog is possible in
the next couple of hours as dew point depressions have gotten small,
but it should be relegated to the usual spots and shouldn`t be too
widespread. Use caution near bodies of water during your Thursday
morning commute, however, as visibilities could drop quickly.

The story remains the same as in previous forecast packages: today
starts a long string of hot and humid afternoons. High pressure
aloft should keep things dry for at least the next couple of days,
though a couple of models try to spark some showers or a few
thunderstorms Friday and Saturday afternoons. If this does occur,
keep in mind what summertime storms can do; heavy rain, lightning
and potentially gusty winds. I wouldn`t change any plans, though.
Rain chances are pretty small.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 132 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

By Sunday, a shortwave moving across the Great Lakes will help to
push a frontal boundary into the mid-Mississippi and Tennessee
Valleys. With the heat and humidity already in place, this focusing
mechanism could spark a few more storms Sunday evening through
Monday morning. The same concerns will come with any of these storms
as low shear values will limit the chance for any severe storms.

Once the front gets through the area Monday, our pattern turns to
more of this dirty ridging aloft. This will keep temperatures 95+
degrees into next week, but it will also present the opportunity
for afternoon and early evening summertime convection each day.

Speaking of the 95+ degree days, I took a look at some numbers and
if today`s forecast of 8 straight days of 95 degrees or better (at
BNA) verifies, it will be longest streak of such days since 2012.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 634 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

High pressure remains the dominant weather feature affecting
Middle Tennessee today, so once the morning radiation fog
dissipates, we`ll be VFR the rest of the way. Expect generally
light/calm surface winds through the TAF period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      95  74  96  74 /   0   0  10  10
Clarksville    92  72  93  72 /   0   0  10  10
Crossville     88  66  88  67 /   0   0  10  10
Columbia       93  70  96  72 /   0   0  10  10
Cookeville     89  69  91  70 /   0   0  10  10
Jamestown      89  67  90  69 /   0   0  10  10
Lawrenceburg   92  69  94  71 /   0   0  10  10
Murfreesboro   94  72  96  72 /   0   0  10  10
Waverly        92  71  93  72 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Unger
LONG TERM....Unger
AVIATION.....Rose