043
FXUS64 KOHX 180527
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1227 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 753 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024

Beautiful fall-like evening across the midstate with current
temperatures in the mid 60s to mid 70s and dewpoints in the mid
50s to low 60s. Considerable cloud cover remains overhead from
I-65 eastward this evening in association with an upper level low
centered over western North Carolina. Despite the cloud cover,
model guidance is very aggressive in developing fog overnight
due to the expected low dewpoint depressions - especially over our
eastern counties, where the fog could get dense. Also can`t
completely rule out a sprinkle or light rain shower on the Plateau
in the wraparound moisture from the upper low, but will not
include a pop at this time. Forecast has all of this covered and
only made minor tweaks to grids and zones.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1058 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024

Not a half bad day out there. Both temperatures and dew points are
relatively cool. The Plateau wins for being the coolest with many
spots still in the low 60s as we approach the noon hour. This is
directly related to the upper level low centered over the TN/GA/NC
triple point. Clouds associated with this system continue to stream
over our far eastern counties and there were even a couple of
pavement wetters on the Upper Cumberland a few hours ago. At this
point, if anyone does see light rain over there, it`ll barely be
measurable. Similar conditions are likely tomorrow as this upper
system will be slow to pull away from Middle TN.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1058 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024

As we get into Thursday and the upper low moves into the mid-
Atlantic seaboard region, upper ridging will replace it across the
mid-Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys. That means dry conditions
will continue across the mid-state and temperatures will begin to
respond. By Friday and Saturday, afternoon highs will climb into
the low 90s for the western 2/3 of the area. However, northerly
boundary layer flow will keep dew points in the upper 50s and low
60s, so we`ve got several really nice days ahead.

"When are we gonna get some darn rain?", asks the drought-stricken
areas of Middle TN. Unfortunately, my answer is the same as it`s
been lately -- not for awhile. It could be the middle of next week
before any appreciable rainfall returns to the area. That means
worsening drought conditions for everyone. Everyone except that guy
in Lawrence County who got 8+ inches of rain last weekend from
Francine.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1224 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024

Low cigs and vis will impact CSV/SRB through the overnight hours
before slowly improving after sunrise. MVFR cigs could impact
MQY/BNA as well through mid morning before cigs increase to VFR.
Winds will be out of the N/NE through the taf period generally
around 5 kts or less.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      87  67  91  64 /   0   0   0   0
Clarksville    87  65  90  62 /   0   0   0   0
Crossville     80  58  83  56 /  10   0   0   0
Columbia       86  65  90  61 /   0   0   0   0
Cookeville     81  61  84  59 /  10  10   0   0
Jamestown      80  60  83  58 /  10  10   0   0
Lawrenceburg   85  63  89  61 /   0   0   0   0
Murfreesboro   86  64  90  61 /  10   0   0   0
Waverly        86  65  89  63 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE.......Shamburger
SHORT TERM...Unger
LONG TERM....Unger
AVIATION.....Reagan