489
FXUS64 KOHX 212335
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
635 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Sunday)
Issued at 1126 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024

Water vapor imagery this morning shows an upper-level high
pressure centered over eastern TX. With Middle TN mainly under the
influence of ridging from this high, temperatures through this
weekend will remain hot in the upper-80s into the low-90s. But
with the center of this high well to our south and an embedded
shortwave rounding the periphery of the high, isolated showers are
possible through this afternoon and then again on Sunday,
especially near the TN/KY border. Any showers will be hit-and-
miss, and with our dry atmosphere, any rainfall will be light and
less than a tenth of an inch.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday Night through next Saturday)
Issued at 1126 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024

The high to our south gets suppressed starting Monday as a trough
tracks through the Plains. This will increase our rain chances
Monday, but best rain chances of the week so far look to be on
Tuesday as a weak cold front tracks through the area. But before
you get excited, rain amounts are still underwhelming and
generally less than a quarter of an inch through Tuesday. But good
news is that temperatures will fall behind the front and feel more
seasonable with highs falling in the upper-70s to mid-80s.

Models diverge significantly Wednesday and beyond, and confidence
is very low regarding the forecast from here. Model solutions are
generally in two different camps. The deterministic GFS as well as
its ensemble members show a deep trough extending from the Great
Lakes region. But the ENS and GEPS ensemble members are favoring
more of a ridging pattern. The GFS`s solution favors a wetter
pattern while the other favors a drier pattern. Unfortunately, the
drier pattern looks to be more likely at this point with about
60% of ensemble members favoring the ridging. But have continued
the low precipitation chances (15 to 25 percent) Wednesday and
beyond to account for this uncertainty. Stay tuned.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 629 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024

Frontal boundary to our northwest with a northwesterly flow in
place in the mid and upper levels. This may act to trigger a few
tstms once again on Sunday afternoon. Coverage looks like isolated
to scattered. Will include a vcts group for the tafs. Otw, some
patchy fog late tonight area wide. Vsbys as low as 1sm for CSV
and SRB areas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      73  93  71  91 /  20  30  20  30
Clarksville    70  91  69  89 /  10  30  30  40
Crossville     64  87  64  85 /   0  30  30  50
Columbia       69  93  69  92 /  10  10  10  20
Cookeville     67  88  67  87 /  10  20  30  40
Jamestown      65  87  65  84 /   0  20  40  60
Lawrenceburg   68  91  68  91 /  10  10  10  20
Murfreesboro   69  93  69  93 /  20  30  20  30
Waverly        69  91  69  89 /  10  20  20  30

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Clements
LONG TERM....Clements
AVIATION.....21