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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
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290 FXUS64 KOHX 141059 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 559 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday) Issued at 156 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 In the days ahead we will definitely be trending toward a hotter summertime pattern. Yesterday, the heat index did reach 93F in Nashville, and as hot as it felt, that`s still a good 12F below the advisory threshold. Furthermore, the actual high was 94F, so the HI effect was neutral to slightly negative. Well, it`s going to heat up more so the heat index values will still need to be under review for sure. Early this morning, it`s mild and tranquil with temperatures in the mid to upper 60s. Dewpoint spreads are rather low so we could still see some patchy fog toward sunrise. Could see some patchy fog again tonight as depressions will remain low. For today, a weakening front to our north is expected to fizzle before reaching our area. It will encounter drier air and the beginning influences of some upper ridge expansion from TX through the mid MS valley. All mods are showing this precip dying out quickly. Thus the trend through Sunday will be for the mid and upper levels to warm as a strong upper high moves across the deep/mid south on Saturday. This is going to equate to a warming trend with highs working upward through the 90s. By Sunday, some thermal thickness separation will be in play across our area. As this combines with 850 mb temps in the 21C- 22.5C range, we will see the mercury shoot up into the upper 90s for highs west of the Plat. The good news is that it appears that dewpoints will hold in the 60s as much of the lower level flow remains somewhat land locked. Still, rather hot conditions upcoming. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday Night through next Friday) Issued at 156 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 In the extended forecast, the summertime pattern will be well entrenched so we can forget about any frontal passages. That said, the mid and upper levels will serve as governor, if you will, for the upcoming wx conditions. Additionally, cape to cap ratios will be monitored as the upper high does move east early next week with a uniform southerly flow setting up. At that time, we will see a little bit more in the way of afternoon convective potential. Nothing significant, by any means, but perhaps a 20-30 afternoon pop for Monday and Tuesday of next week. Remember that just a small amount of mid level cooling can tilt the convective balance just enough to pop a few showers and storms in the afternoon. Not seeing any strong to severe storms though. Those 850mb speeds are 10mph or less, forcing is on the weak side with no organization to speak of, and the synoptic scenario is completely out to lunch. No, just general isolated to perhaps scattered afternoon storm potential. By mid week, the mods elude more toward what looks like a July or August pattern. What I mean by that is that the upper high shifts northward across the northeastern states. Some southwest ridge extension is noted with a fair degree of confidence. This will act to efficaciously warm those mid levels and put the hiatus on our convective chances. Looking way out at day 7 and 8, slight convective chances could return with a potential easterly wave or a vague moisture undercut in regard to the ridge. NBM may just hold those pops at 10% with no visual acuity noted in the wx grids/zones. For those extended temps, though the upper high shifts east early in the period, not much in the way of a cool down can be expected. Look for highs to remain in the 90s. 925MB-850mb trajectories continue to basically refrain from a gulf tap/humidity assault, so again those dewpoints will hold in the 60s. Overnight lows look like upper 60s to lower 70s. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 600 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 There is some patchy fog this morning mainly in the vicinity of KSRB, this will lift in the next hour or so. Then VFR condition are expected through the TAF period. Winds will be light under 5 knots. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 95 71 93 68 / 0 0 0 0 Clarksville 91 68 91 65 / 10 0 0 0 Crossville 87 64 85 63 / 10 0 0 0 Columbia 94 69 93 66 / 0 0 0 0 Cookeville 88 66 87 66 / 0 0 0 0 Jamestown 87 64 85 62 / 10 10 0 0 Lawrenceburg 93 69 92 67 / 0 0 0 0 Murfreesboro 95 69 93 67 / 0 0 0 0 Waverly 91 69 91 67 / 0 0 0 0 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...21 LONG TERM....21 AVIATION.....Mueller