301
FXUS64 KOHX 211747
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1247 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Sunday)
Issued at 1126 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024

Water vapor imagery this morning shows an upper-level high
pressure centered over eastern TX. With Middle TN mainly under the
influence of ridging from this high, temperatures through this
weekend will remain hot in the upper-80s into the low-90s. But
with the center of this high well to our south and an embedded
shortwave rounding the periphery of the high, isolated showers are
possible through this afternoon and then again on Sunday,
especially near the TN/KY border. Any showers will be hit-and-
miss, and with our dry atmosphere, any rainfall will be light and
less than a tenth of an inch.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday Night through next Saturday)
Issued at 1126 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024

The high to our south gets suppressed starting Monday as a trough
tracks through the Plains. This will increase our rain chances
Monday, but best rain chances of the week so far look to be on
Tuesday as a weak cold front tracks through the area. But before
you get excited, rain amounts are still underwhelming and
generally less than a quarter of an inch through Tuesday. But good
news is that temperatures will fall behind the front and feel more
seasonable with highs falling in the upper-70s to mid-80s.

Models diverge significantly Wednesday and beyond, and confidence
is very low regarding the forecast from here. Model solutions are
generally in two different camps. The deterministic GFS as well as
its ensemble members show a deep trough extending from the Great
Lakes region. But the ENS and GEPS ensemble members are favoring
more of a ridging pattern. The GFS`s solution favors a wetter
pattern while the other favors a drier pattern. Unfortunately, the
drier pattern looks to be more likely at this point with about
60% of ensemble members favoring the ridging. But have continued
the low precipitation chances (15 to 25 percent) Wednesday and
beyond to account for this uncertainty. Stay tuned.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1247 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024

VFR conditions to prevail through 22/18Z. Variability in wind
direction possible, some patchy fog possible with a better chance
of showers and possible storms for locations across at least
southern portions of mid state region 22/12Z-22/18Z, confidence in
these developments are not high enough to mention in either
prevailing or temporarily groupings at mid state terminal sites
and believe further set of model runs & associated meteorological
interpretation is needed before mentioning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      72  93  71  91 /  10  20  20  30
Clarksville    71  91  69  89 /  20  30  20  40
Crossville     63  86  64  85 /  10  20  30  50
Columbia       69  92  68  92 /  10  20  10  20
Cookeville     66  88  67  87 /  10  20  20  40
Jamestown      65  86  66  84 /   0  30  30  60
Lawrenceburg   68  92  68  91 /  10  10  10  20
Murfreesboro   69  93  69  93 /  20  20  20  30
Waverly        69  91  69  89 /  20  20  20  30

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Clements
LONG TERM....Clements
AVIATION.....JB Wright