494
FXUS64 KOHX 200535
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1235 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 905 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

We will see quiet conditions tonight under an upper level ridge.
Winds will be light with lows in the low to mid 60s. Patchy fog
can be expected again, similar to last night. The best fog
chances will be outside the Nashville metro. Quiet and warm
tomorrow with highs in the 90s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Friday)
Issued at 1159 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

Surface and upper level south central and southeastern CONUS
based ridging influences are here to stay across mid state region
not only through Friday, but through entire weekend. Another
repeat of patchy to areas of fog development is expected as late
evening through overnight hours progress tonight across our area
with this fog formation lasting potentially through early morning
hours on Friday. Current regional temperature trends continue to
supported previously forecasted high temperature values as as
upper level ridging compression clamps down on mid state region
resulting in warming temperates with highs this afternoon still
looking to range on the seasonally warm side upper 80s to lower
90s, mid 80s Cumberland Plateau Region. Lows tonight will continue
the mild trend as of late spanning the 60s, with some upper 50s
possible higher elevations of Upper Cumberland Region. Highs on
Friday will even be warmer, ranging low to mid 90s, mid 80s to
around 90 for locations just west of and across Cumberland Plateau
Region. One saving grace is that heat index values will be around
forecasted high temperatures today and Friday as maximum relative
humidity values generally span upper 30s through 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday Night through next Thursday)
Issued at 1159 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

As mentioned above, ridging will continue to be dominant weather
player through weekend. Lows over weekend will continue mild
trend spanning 60s. Highs on Saturday and Sunday will nearly be
in same identical range, upper 80s to mid 90s across "The Paved
Heat Island" called the Nashville Metro Area. With maximum
afternoon relative humidity values continuing upper 30s through
40s range though, heat index values will once again be around
forecasted high temperature values for this upcoming weekend.
Still looks like a weak shortwave will approach our area as Monday
progresses with maybe some light isolated showers across northern
portions Monday afternoon, but bulk of any precipitation expected
remaining to our north. As more of a quasi southwesterly flow
tries to develop along with a more pronounced upper level
shortwave passage as Tuesday progresses, looks to bring scattered
showers with isolated thunderstorms to our area Tuesday afternoon.
As broad upper level troughing develops across our area on
Wednesday in association with a broad closed upper level low
moving across Great Lakes Region, isolated to scattered showers
along with isolated thunderstorms may be possible Tuesday night
into Wednesday with broad upper level northwesterly flow
developing as Thursday progresses with a surface cold front
approaching from our west eventually becoming stationary across
western portions of our area on Thursday with isolated to
scattered showers at least possible. Total rainfall amounts Monday
through Thursday afternoon continue to trend on light side,
generally less than 0.50." So, what about temperatures as next
work week progresses? Although lows will continue to remain mainly
in the 60s, this weather pattern evolution across our area will
result in high temperatures returning back to around seasonal
normal values for Wednesday and Thursday afternoons.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1227 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024

VFR conditions currently ongoing across Middle TN. Still think
some areas of patchy fog will develop later tonight and into the
early morning Friday. In particular, around CSV/SRB. Confidence
is low, but with calm winds and saturated dewpoints, it is
possible, especially around day break. Around 14z, any fog that
does develop will mix out making way for VFR conditions to prevail
through the remainder of the day.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      94  70  94  70 /   0   0   0   0
Clarksville    93  68  93  68 /   0  10   0   0
Crossville     87  62  88  62 /   0   0   0   0
Columbia       93  66  93  67 /   0   0   0   0
Cookeville     88  65  89  65 /   0   0   0   0
Jamestown      87  63  87  64 /   0   0   0   0
Lawrenceburg   92  65  93  66 /   0   0   0   0
Murfreesboro   93  66  95  68 /   0   0   0   0
Waverly        91  68  92  68 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE.......Mueller
SHORT TERM...JB Wright
LONG TERM....JB Wright
AVIATION.....Cravens